Omar Tariq
Energy & Commodities Reporter

Oil, gas, metals, and the energy transition. Covered commodities for Bloomberg in London before relocating to cover Asia-Pacific resource flows.

Latest

India's recent gold import restrictions have led to a nationwide panic buying spree, with jewelry sales increasing by 15-20% in just two days.

India's Gold Curbs Spark 20% Jump in Panic Buying

**Key Takeaways:** * India's gold import restrictions have triggered a 15-20% surge in jewelry sales as consumers rush to buy before potential new curbs. * The government's move, aimed at stabilizing the rupee, has had the opposite effect, fueling a panic-buying spree ahead of the wedding season. | Metric | Value | | :--- | :--- | | Jewelry Sales Increase | 15-20% | | Goldman Sachs Gold Target | $5400/oz | | GST on Gold | 3% |

RBC's top commodity strategist warns that market optimism on the Strait of Hormuz reopening is misplaced, forecasting a potential surge in oil prices to record highs and a subsequent stock market decline.

RBC Warns 'Magical Thinking' on Hormuz Could Send Oil Past $140

**Key Takeaways:** * RBC's Helima Croft calls market hopes for a June reopening of the Strait of Hormuz "magical thinking," predicting a prolonged closure. * A continued blockade of 12.5 million barrels per day could push Brent crude prices past 2022 highs toward the 2008 record of $147 a barrel. * Falling global inventories and warnings from the IEA and Saudi Aramco suggest a severe supply crunch that could trigger a stock market sell-off.

A war involving Iran has led to the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, causing countries to increase their reliance on coal for power as of May 16, 2026.

Sulphuric acid prices double to $307 amid Hormuz shutdown

**Key Takeaways** * A severe global shortage of sulphuric acid is emerging after the Strait of Hormuz disruption and a new Chinese export ban, threatening fertilizer, electronics, and EV battery production. * Global oil inventories are projected to hit record lows of 7.6 billion barrels by the end of May, with the International Energy Agency warning of future price spikes. * | Commodity | Price Change | Period | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Sulphuric Acid | +106% | Mar-Apr 2026 | | Urea Fertilizer | +40% | Post-war | | Sulphur (Chile) | +54% | Post-war |

A wartime event has caused a surge in energy prices, creating a divide in the U.S. economy by negatively impacting consumers while benefiting investors.

Oil surge widens rift as energy profits jump 50 percent

**A wartime surge in oil prices is fueling a stark divergence in the U.S. economy, rewarding energy investors with near 50 percent profit growth while eroding American paychecks.**

During its Q1 2026 earnings call, Parex Resources management announced a major expansion in Colombia through acquisitions, partnerships, and drilling programs, with the stated goal of nearly double the company's production base.

Parex to Nearly Double Production to 91,000 boe/d After Colombia Deals

**A series of strategic transactions positions Parex Resources to become Colombia's largest independent producer, reshaping the country's energy landscape.**

The UAE's exit from OPEC+ could destabilize the cartel's control over global oil supply, potentially leading to increased production and downward pressure on crude oil prices if other members do not adjust their quotas.

UAE Exits OPEC, Targets 5 Million BPD in Major Policy Shift

**The United Arab Emirates is breaking from the Arab order, choosing to prioritize its own production capabilities in a move that could shatter the 60-year-old oil cartel.**

Critical One Energy announced on May 15, 2026, that drill hole HWL-2026-006 at its Howells Lake Project in Ontario intersected 4.0 meters of massive stibnite grading 70.2% antimony.

Critical One Energy drills 4 meters of 70.2% antimony in Ontario

**Key Takeaways:** * Critical One Energy (CSE: CRTL) reported a 4.0-meter drill intercept grading 70.2% antimony from its Howells Lake project in Ontario, among the highest grades ever reported in Canada. * The discovery opens the potential for a direct shipping ore (DSO) operation, a strategic priority for creating a North American antimony supply chain independent of China. * **Drill Hole HWL-2026-006 Highlights:** * **High-Grade Zone:** 4.0m @ 70.2% Sb * **Broader Zone:** 8.0m @ 42.2% Sb * **Deeper Zone:** 7.3m @ 1.62% Sb

US President Donald Trump stated that the rise in gasoline prices to over $4.50 per gallon is a 'short-term pain' amid the ongoing war with Iran.

Trump dismisses gas price spike of 52% as short-term pain

**President Donald Trump’s dismissal of soaring gasoline prices comes as his administration grapples with the escalating economic and political fallout from the 11-week-old war with Iran.**

Precious metals prices are declining as the ongoing conflict in Iran fuels fears of sustained inflation and further interest rate hikes from central banks.

Gold and Silver Fall as War Lifts Oil Price Over $1.50

**Key Takeaways** * Gold and silver are falling despite geopolitical conflict, as traders focus on inflation driven by a 53% spike in gasoline prices. * Experts predict gasoline prices will remain elevated for over a year, with the EIA forecasting an average of $3.88 for 2026. * **War's Economic Impact:** * US Gasoline Price: +$1.56/gallon (since Feb. 23) * Strait of Hormuz: 20M barrels/day blocked * Malaysia Q1 Inflation: 1.6% (from 1.3% in Q4)

U.S. oil refiners are reporting significant profits from renewable fuels, a reversal of historical trends, as government mandates and soaring diesel prices linked to the conflict in Iran create a new, stable revenue stream.

US Refiners Boost Biofuel Profits Over 15% as Iran War Lifts Diesel

**Key Takeaways:** * U.S. oil refiners are seeing a significant profit boost from biofuels, driven by federal mandates and high diesel prices. * The war in Iran has choked off Persian Gulf supplies, causing crude-processing margins to swell and pushing refineries to maximum capacity. * The trend is expected to continue through 2026, potentially making biofuels a stable, long-term revenue source for the refining sector.

Sherritt International is suspending its direct participation in Cuban joint ventures, including its 50 percent stake in the Moa nickel and cobalt mine, due to expanded U.S. sanctions.

Sherritt to Exit Cuba Forcing Sale of Nickel Stake After US Sanctions

**Key Takeaways:** * Sherritt International is suspending its direct participation in Cuban joint ventures, including its 50 percent stake in the Moa nickel and cobalt mine. * The move is a direct result of a U.S. executive order on May 1, 2026, that expanded sanctions against Cuba, creating significant operational and financial risks for the company. * Sherritt’s shares fell more than 20 percent to 12 cents on the Toronto Stock Exchange following the announcement and the resignation of its CFO and auditor.

On May 15, 2026, Nymex natural gas futures increased by 2% to $2.953/mmBtu, supported by a warmer weather outlook and a near-normal storage report, despite LNG export limitations due to facility maintenance.

Natural Gas Nears $3 as Storage Build Misses Forecasts by 14%

**Key Takeaways:** * Nymex natural gas futures rose 2% to settle at $2.953/mmBtu, driven by a smaller-than-expected increase in U.S. inventories and forecasts for warmer weather. * Major producers like EQT have curtailed output in response to weaker spot prices, tightening the supply outlook even as LNG export demand is temporarily muted by facility maintenance. * **Weekly Storage Snapshot:** * **Actual Injection:** 63 Bcf * **Market Expectation:** 74 Bcf * **5-Year Average:** 77 Bcf

On May 15, U.S. listed gold mining stocks experienced a widespread decline, with major producers and the SPDR Gold ETF falling sharply as hotter-than-expected inflation data strengthened the U.S. dollar and pushed rate cut expectations further out.

Gold Stocks Sink as 4 Miners Drop More Than 5 Percent

**Key Takeaways:** * Gold mining stocks fell sharply on May 15, with Harmony Gold dropping 7.1 percent and the widely-held SPDR Gold ETF (GLD) losing 2.4 percent. * The sell-off was driven by a stronger U.S. dollar and higher Treasury yields after multiple U.S. inflation reports came in hotter than expected, reducing the appeal of non-yielding gold. * **Mining Stock Performance (May 15)** * Harmony Gold (HMY): -7.1% * Sibanye-Stillwater (SBSW): -6.5% * AngloGold Ashanti (AU): -6.5% * Kinross Gold (KGC): -5.2%

On May 15, 2026, the price of Gold fell below the 4590 support level, targeting the next support zone at 4500-4510.

Gold price drops below 4590 as market eyes key support

**Key Takeaways:** * Gold price breaks below the 4590 support level, signaling increased bearish momentum. * The next critical support zone is being watched by traders at the 4500-4510 range. * A rebound toward the 4850-4890 resistance zone is possible if the 4500 support holds.

Newcore Gold Ltd. announced an upsized $15 million bought deal financing, led by Haywood Securities Inc., to fund its exploration and development projects.

Newcore Gold Upsizes Financing to $15 Million for Exploration Push

**Key Takeaways** * Newcore Gold increased its bought deal financing to $15 million, selling 28.3 million shares at $0.53 each. * The deal, led by Haywood Securities, indicates strong institutional interest in the junior gold sector. * **Financing Snapshot:** | Metric | Value | | :--- | :--- | | Total Shares | 28,310,000 | | Price per Share | $0.53 | | Gross Proceeds | $15,004,300 |

An analyst report projects a 54% upside for Constellation Energy (CEG) to $424 per share, citing the critical role of nuclear power in meeting the surging energy demands of the artificial intelligence industry.

Constellation Energy targets $424 price on AI power demand

**Power constraints are emerging as the key bottleneck for AI growth, placing a premium on nuclear energy providers.**

Saudi Aramco is accelerating a plan to sell up to $35 billion in non-core infrastructure and real estate assets to manage liquidity and attract foreign investment amidst an ongoing regional war that began on February 28, 2026.

Aramco to Sell $35 Billion in Assets to Fund Saudi Vision 2030

**Key Takeaways:** * Saudi Aramco plans to sell up to $35 billion in non-core assets, its largest privatization effort ever. * The sales follow a successful $11 billion gas pipeline deal with a BlackRock-led group, which serves as a model for future transactions. * The strategy aims to secure liquidity to support the Saudi government's budget and Vision 2030 projects amid regional conflict and shortfalls in foreign investment.

Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz sent crude oil prices climbing over 4 percent, disrupting global energy and petrochemical supply chains.

Oil jumps over 4 percent as Hormuz tensions rattle markets

**A sharp escalation in Middle East tensions sent oil prices soaring over 4 percent, reigniting fears of a prolonged global supply disruption and embedding a risk premium across energy and petrochemical markets.**

HSBC Securities raises its silver price forecast but predicts a decline to $70/oz by the end of 2026 due to a 49% drop in the supply deficit and significant industrial demand destruction.

HSBC says silver's supply deficit to shrink 49% in 2026

**Key Takeaways:** * HSBC Securities raised its average silver price forecast for 2026 to $75 an ounce, but expects prices to fall to $70 by year-end as high prices curb demand. * Industrial and jewelry demand is projected to fall by a combined 47 million ounces in 2026 as consumers and manufacturers react to high prices. * **Silver Supply & Demand Balance (Forecast)** | Metric (Million Ounces) | 2025 | 2026 (f) | 2027 (f) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Supply/Demand Deficit | 143 | 73 | 25 |

An unprecedented blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a global fertilizer shortage, sending shares of North American producer CF Industries sharply higher.

CF Industries Surges 8% as Hormuz Blockade Sparks Fertilizer Shortage

* CF Industries (CF) stock jumps over 8% as the Strait of Hormuz closure cuts off a significant portion of global fertilizer and energy supplies. * The blockade has halted nearly 20% of the world's oil and a substantial amount of fertilizer exports, creating a severe supply shock. * With its North American production base, CF Industries is uniquely positioned to fill the supply gap, leading to a bullish outlook from analysts.

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