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James Okafor
Economics & Policy Reporter

Central banks, rates, and the macro data that moves markets. Spent five years at the Financial Times covering the Fed and Treasury before joining Edgen.

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The U.S. Census Bureau reported that advance estimates for February's retail and food services sales rose 0.6% from January to a total of $738.4 billion.

US Retail Sales Rise 0.6% in February, Fueling Fed Rate Debate

The U.S. Census Bureau reported that advance estimates for February's retail and food services sales rose 0.6% from January to a total of $738.4 billion.

President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh for Federal Reserve Chair faces significant political and economic obstacles, threatening a leadership vacuum at the central bank.

Fed Nominee Kevin Warsh Faces 4 Hurdles to Confirmation

President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh for Federal Reserve Chair faces significant political and economic obstacles, threatening a leadership vacuum at the central bank.

US manufacturing activity expanded in March 2026 at its fastest rate since 2022, but producers face surging input costs from tariffs, creating a conflict between strong demand from AI and infrastructure and pressure on profit margins.

US Manufacturing Expands at Fastest Pace Since 2022 Despite Surging Costs

US manufacturing activity expanded in March 2026 at its fastest rate since 2022, but producers face surging input costs from tariffs, creating a conflict between strong demand from AI and infrastructure and pressure on profit margins.

The U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index for March 2026 was reported at 52.7, exceeding the forecast of 52.3 and marking the fastest rate of expansion since 2022, accompanied by a surge in input costs.

US ISM manufacturing index expands to 52.7 in March, fueling rate cut doubts

The U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index for March 2026 was reported at 52.7, exceeding the forecast of 52.3 and marking the fastest rate of expansion since 2022, accompanied by a surge in input costs.

The US March 2026 ISM Manufacturing Index is scheduled to be released at 22:00 Beijing Time.

US ISM Manufacturing Index Awaits Release at 22:00 Beijing Time

The US March 2026 ISM Manufacturing Index is scheduled to be released at 22:00 Beijing Time.

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem suggested holding rates steady for a 'considerable period' may be appropriate, citing increased risks to both inflation and the labor market.

Fed's Musalem sees 1 reason to hold rates for a 'considerable period'

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem suggested holding rates steady for a 'considerable period' may be appropriate, citing increased risks to both inflation and the labor market.

The U.S. retail sales report for February 2026, released on April 1, 2026, indicated a rebound in sales following a recent period of weakness.

US Retail Sales Rebound 2% in February, Easing Economic Slowdown Fears

The U.S. retail sales report for February 2026, released on April 1, 2026, indicated a rebound in sales following a recent period of weakness.

The ADP Research Institute reported on Wednesday, April 1, 2026, that US private sector employment increased by 62,000 in March, exceeding the median forecast of 40,000.

US jobs data beats forecasts with 62,000 gain, clouding Fed outlook

The ADP Research Institute reported on Wednesday, April 1, 2026, that US private sector employment increased by 62,000 in March, exceeding the median forecast of 40,000.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's term is scheduled to expire on May 15, 2026.

Fed leadership question looms as Powell's term ends in 2026

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's term is scheduled to expire on May 15, 2026.

The U.S. Treasury is reported to expect oil prices to remain above $100/barrel for an extended period, with officials discussing the possibility of prices reaching $150/barrel. The Trump administration reportedly views the Treasury's forecast as a 'baseline scenario'.

US Treasury sees oil prices above $100 for long term

The U.S. Treasury is reported to expect oil prices to remain above $100/barrel for an extended period, with officials discussing the possibility of prices reaching $150/barrel. The Trump administration reportedly views the Treasury's forecast as a 'baseline scenario'.

Statistics Canada reported that Canada's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 0.1% in January 2026, beating forecasts for no growth and suggesting a modest recovery from the previous quarter's contraction.

Canada's Economy Ekes Out 0.1% Growth to Start 2026, Beating Forecasts

Statistics Canada reported that Canada's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 0.1% in January 2026, beating forecasts for no growth and suggesting a modest recovery from the previous quarter's contraction.

A rapid surge in US gasoline prices to over $4 per gallon, triggered by the conflict in Iran, is straining household budgets and raising concerns about wider inflation.

US gas prices top $4, fueling fears of a wider economic shock

A rapid surge in US gasoline prices to over $4 per gallon, triggered by the conflict in Iran, is straining household budgets and raising concerns about wider inflation.

Following the outbreak of an Iran war, global bond markets experienced a significant sell-off, with the US 10-year Treasury yield rising 38 basis points while China's 10-year government bond yield fell, positioning it as a safe-haven asset.

China Bonds Gain 38 bps on US Treasuries as War Fuels Haven Bid

Following the outbreak of an Iran war, global bond markets experienced a significant sell-off, with the US 10-year Treasury yield rising 38 basis points while China's 10-year government bond yield fell, positioning it as a safe-haven asset.

Eurostat's March 2026 flash estimate shows Eurozone inflation accelerated to 2.5% year-over-year, driven by a surge in energy prices and prompting hawkish commentary from European Central Bank officials.

Eurozone inflation quickens to 2.5% fueling ECB rate hike debate

Eurostat's March 2026 flash estimate shows Eurozone inflation accelerated to 2.5% year-over-year, driven by a surge in energy prices and prompting hawkish commentary from European Central Bank officials.

South Korea's March exports grew 48.3% year-over-year to a record $86.13 billion, driven by a 151.4% surge in semiconductor exports fueled by global AI infrastructure demand.

South Korea March exports surge 48% on AI semiconductor demand

South Korea's March exports grew 48.3% year-over-year to a record $86.13 billion, driven by a 151.4% surge in semiconductor exports fueled by global AI infrastructure demand.

Business sentiment among large Japanese non-manufacturers held at a multi-decade high in the first quarter of 2026, supporting the case for a potential Bank of Japan interest rate hike.

Japan business sentiment holds at 36, keeping rate hike on table

Business sentiment among large Japanese non-manufacturers held at a multi-decade high in the first quarter of 2026, supporting the case for a potential Bank of Japan interest rate hike.

Multiple Federal Reserve officials stated an optimistic US economic growth forecast for 2026, citing AI-driven productivity as a key driver, despite conflicting economic data.

Fed Projects 2.5% Growth on AI Hopes, Ignoring Economic Warnings

Multiple Federal Reserve officials stated an optimistic US economic growth forecast for 2026, citing AI-driven productivity as a key driver, despite conflicting economic data.

Federal Reserve officials remain optimistic about US economic growth, a stance that is increasingly at odds with recent data showing signs of a slowdown.

Fed's Growth Optimism Clashes With 3 Signs of a Slowdown

Federal Reserve officials remain optimistic about US economic growth, a stance that is increasingly at odds with recent data showing signs of a slowdown.

Brazil's central bank announced it doubled its gold holdings in 2025, making gold the second-largest asset in its foreign exchange reserves after the U.S. dollar.

Brazil central bank doubles gold reserves in de-dollarization move

Brazil's central bank announced it doubled its gold holdings in 2025, making gold the second-largest asset in its foreign exchange reserves after the U.S. dollar.

In a Barron's commentary, economists Tim Mahedy and Guy Berger argue that AI's economic impact will be a gradual shift, not a sudden shock leading to mass unemployment, with the primary risk being a future workforce skills gap.

AI impact on jobs brings 2 big long-term risks

In a Barron's commentary, economists Tim Mahedy and Guy Berger argue that AI's economic impact will be a gradual shift, not a sudden shock leading to mass unemployment, with the primary risk being a future workforce skills gap.

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