Bitcoin bull flag targets $90,000 as prediction markets assign 8% odds

Bitcoin rose nearly 25% to $79,136 over seven days, forming a bull flag targeting $90,000 while prediction markets assign just 8% odds by September 1.

"Bitcoin has reclaimed its 1,130-day simple moving average, a level that has historically marked the end of previous bear markets," Ali Martinez, a crypto analyst, said in an August 24 post on X.

Polymarket data shows traders assign a 70% probability of $77,500, a 52% chance of $82,500, and a 26% probability of $85,000 before September 1. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted about $1.6 billion in net inflows last week, including more than $600 million in a single day — the strongest inflow period of 2026.

The divergence between the technical structure and prediction market probabilities could drive volatility in either direction. A break above the current range may trigger additional momentum buying, while failure to reach the target could result in a sharp correction.

The bull flag pattern emerged as Bitcoin moved from the $62,000 range to above $80,000 in a seven-day period ending August 25. Multiple analytical firms have projected a $90,000 target based on the classic measurement of the flagpole's height added to the breakout point.

Polymarket traders see $77,500 as the most likely near-term target, assigning it a 70% probability. The market also gives Bitcoin a 52% chance of reaching $82,500 and a 26% probability of climbing to $85,000. On the downside, traders see a 36% probability that Bitcoin falls to $75,000 and a 7% chance of dropping to $70,000 before the deadline. The market assigns only a 1% chance that Bitcoin reaches $100,000 before September 1.

Institutional flows and the 1,130-day SMA signal

The rally has been supported by strong institutional demand. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted about $1.6 billion in net inflows last week, including more than $600 million in a single day — the strongest inflow period of 2026. Expanded U.S. Treasury bond buybacks boosted liquidity and weakened the dollar, increasing demand for alternative assets. Progress on crypto regulation, including renewed support for the CLARITY Act, has also encouraged investors. Billions of dollars in short positions were liquidated as Bitcoin surged, further accelerating the rally.

Bitcoin lost the 1,130-day SMA on June 1, 2026, and spent about 80 days trading below the indicator. On August 20, the cryptocurrency reclaimed the moving average after breaking above $74,000, turning the level back into support. In each of the previous four market cycles, Bitcoin entered a sustained bull market shortly after recovering the 1,130-day SMA. The indicator identified major bear market bottoms in 2015, 2019, 2020, and 2023 before significant rallies followed.

With Bitcoin now trading above the moving average and approaching $80,000, the recovery strengthens the view that the market may have already established its cycle bottom. However, the prediction market's cautious stance on $90,000 suggests traders remain wary of overextending the rally.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.