Bitcoin jumps 6.2% to $68,761 as Treasury buyback plan lifts risk

Bitcoin jumped 6.2 percent to $68,761, its biggest daily gain since June, after the US Treasury expanded long-dated bond buybacks. The trigger came from the bond market, not crypto: the Treasury said it will at least double buyback operations to $4 billion per operation starting Sept. 9, pushing long-end yields lower and the dollar down in a shift analysts dubbed "QE Lite."

That mattered because Bitcoin had spent the year competing against a 30-year Treasury paying over 5 percent risk-free. Making the safe option less rewarding rotates capital back into risk assets. The move was amplified by roughly $10 billion of short liquidation liquidity sitting above the price, which turned a rally into a forced-buying cascade. Coinglass data shows roughly $1.3 billion in short liquidations across major exchanges in the 24 hours to 18:00 UTC.

The daily candle opened at $64,686 and ran 7.83 percent to an intraday high of $69,749, clearing the range top of $66,803, the 50-day EMA, and the 100-day EMA in a single session. The range that trapped Bitcoin since June measured $66,803 at the top and $62,277 at the floor, a height of $4,526. The standard measured-move projection adds that height to the breakout point: $66,803 plus $4,526 equals $71,329. The 200-day EMA sits at $71,491. Two independent methods land within $162 of each other, creating a confluence zone around $71,300 to $71,500, roughly 4 percent above the current price.

That zone is the real fight. The 200-day EMA separates a relief rally inside a downtrend from an actual trend change, and Bitcoin has not closed a daily candle above it since the decline began. A second obstacle sits just below: short-term holders, defined as wallets holding coins for less than 155 days, have an average cost basis near $68,700, meaning every buyer from the decline just returned to breakeven, historically a point where supply enters the market.

The momentum problem

The daily RSI jumped to 71.98 from a moving average of 50.74, putting Bitcoin into overbought territory for the first time in months. Vertical moves into overbought conditions typically resolve in one of two ways: a sharp continuation that squeezes remaining shorts, or an equally sharp snapback that fills the candle.

Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin on the same trigger, gaining 9.51 percent to $2,098.70 and closing 1.13 percent below its own 200-day EMA at $2,122.40. The dollar index fell 0.3 percent, and 30-year Treasury yields dropped after the buyback announcement, improving conditions for risk assets broadly.

What the next session decides

The next session determines whether the breakout holds. A daily close above $71,500 would confirm a trend change and open the path toward $75,000, while a rejection at the 200-day EMA risks a retest of the $66,803 breakout level. Bitcoin's 24-hour trading volume and market cap data were not yet disclosed at the time of writing.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.