Bitcoin reclaims 50-week average that ended 4 of 5 bear markets

Bitcoin pushed above $82,000 on Sept. 3, reclaiming the 50-week moving average that Galaxy Research says marked the end of four of five completed bear markets. The signal only counts on a weekly close above the line, which sat near $81,800.

"All eyes have turned to the 50-week moving average," Galaxy Research said, a level Bitcoin spent much of the past year trading below and one that has acted as a ceiling during the downturn. In four of the five comparable bear markets, the first successful weekly reclaim marked the bottom; the exception came in 2021-22, when Bitcoin briefly reclaimed the level twice before falling to a fresh low.

Galaxy dates the current bear market from a peak near $124,800 in October 2025 to a low near $58,500 at the end of June, a decline of roughly 53 percent. Bitcoin traded near $81,400 late in the session, up more than 5 percent over 24 hours, with derivatives running hot alongside: 24-hour futures volume reached about $84.74 billion, open interest near $57.86 billion, and $229.56 million in positions liquidated over the period, $214.81 million of it shorts, per CoinGlass.

The stakes are whether the reclaim holds or joins 2021-22 as the exception. A weekly close above the 50-week line followed by a sustained push through Glassnode's $83,000 to $86,000 band of long-term-holder supply would open $90,000 and then the prior 2026 high near $98,000. A failed weekly close or a loss of the $76,000 to $78,000 support would send Bitcoin toward $71,800 and eventually the $62,000 to $65,000 accumulation zone beneath this year's rally.

Several frameworks converge on the same band

Glassnode's on-chain data puts $83,000 to $86,000 as the dense supply cluster where the current relief rally has stalled, with 68 percent of supply now in profit, up from 65 percent during a similar test in May. 21Shares frames roughly $81,000 to $82,000 as the line separating a genuine turn higher from an ordinary bear-market bounce, with $85,000 and eventually $98,000 as the next markers above it. Reuters technicals flag about $82,800 as prior resistance and a gateway toward $90,000. None reached the same zone through the same method, yet they cluster in the $81,000 to $86,000 range.

The rally's origin invites caution. Glassnode traces the move to a short squeeze in mid-August that carried Bitcoin from roughly $63,500 toward $80,000, alongside about $2.8 billion of ETF inflows, falling futures open interest and contained funding rates — a pattern more consistent with spot buying and short covering than leveraged longs. ETF intake later peaked near $290 million a day, though secondary-market turnover on those ETFs stayed closer to $3 billion daily, quieter than prior expansion phases.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said Sept. 2 that Bitcoin's apparent demand — whether fresh buying is absorbing newly available supply — briefly turned negative again after its August recovery faded. Wallets holding more than 100 BTC added roughly 60,000 coins during August even as smaller holders sold. Bitwise's Sept. 1 research argues the reclaimed levels, combined with its Long-Term Holder Supply and Risk-On Transition models, point to a new bull cycle already underway, provided those levels hold.

The Treasury's Aug. 19 move to at least double its long-end liquidity-support buybacks helped fuel the initial leg. QCP has cautioned the operations function as liquidity support, short of full monetary easing, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller has pointed to fiscal strain keeping Treasury yields elevated in the high-4 percent range.

Bitcoin crossed the line that has historically marked the end of its bear markets. Whether enough buyers show up to prove it will be decided in the next few thousand dollars.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.