Bitcoin reclaims $80,000 as Fidelity warns bear market may persist

Bitcoin climbed above $80,000 after rising 4.3 percent on Friday, capping its strongest month since November 2024, even as Fidelity cautioned that the rally does not confirm the bear market has ended.

"While Bitcoin's strong August rally and other factors offer reasons for optimism, none confirm that the bear market has ended," Fidelity said in its latest crypto outlook, pointing to the asset's roughly four-year market cycle.

The late-month recovery was backed by institutional demand. U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $3.52 billion in net inflows in August, the best monthly figure since October 2025, according to SoSoValue data. Bitcoin gained about 25 percent last month, its strongest monthly performance since November 2024 and its best August since 2017 — the first green August in five years.

The gap between the price recovery and Fidelity's caution frames the central question for the next leg of the market: whether renewed ETF inflows and adoption can overpower the seasonal weakness that has historically weighed on September.

Four-year cycle still points to a possible November low

Fidelity's analysis centers on Bitcoin's roughly four-year market cycle. With the previous bear-market bottom in November 2022, the pattern could point to another potential low around November 2026 if the cycle repeats. The firm stressed the cycle is not guaranteed to repeat and that the bottom may already have occurred in July, but it still speculated Bitcoin could fall again and set another low in November or later.

Fidelity noted the market saw relatively low volatility from June through mid-August, which it read as possible seller exhaustion, before volatility jumped in late August. Bitcoin rose more than 25 percent in the third week of the month, while Ethereum gained about 34 percent and Solana rose 28 percent over the same stretch. Fidelity said this price behavior is consistent with one possible historical pattern of a bear-market bottom but does not confirm it.

Events that might normally have pushed prices lower — including the Coldcard hardware-wallet security exploit and the stalling of the CLARITY Act in the Senate — did not trigger further declines, which Fidelity said could support the view that crypto is near a bottom awaiting fresh positive news.

The August inflows mark a turnaround after earlier outflows, giving bulls momentum heading into a month that has historically been difficult for Bitcoin. Analyst Benjamin Cowen has flagged a "Red September" pattern, while Michaël van de Poppe said Bitcoin could still rise toward $82,700 and possibly $90,000, though he added a 20 to 40 percent drop in September or October remains possible.

Adoption has kept expanding even as prices lagged. Bitwise Investments reported that stablecoin transaction volume reached 2.3 times Visa's volume, and on-chain analyst Willy Woo estimated that about 5 percent of the world's population owns Bitcoin, slightly above the roughly 4.5 percent who own gold and 4 percent who own the S&P 500. Fidelity said this created a disconnect between adoption and prices that the recent recovery may be starting to close.

Bitcoin traded near $81,000 in U.S. hours as the dollar weakened, with the DXY falling to 99 after a suspected Bank of Japan intervention pushed USD/JPY to 155.4. Polymarket odds price a 98 percent probability of a 25-basis-point BOJ rate hike on Sept. 18, reviving comparisons to the 2024 carry-trade unwind that pressured risk assets.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.