Key Takeaways:
Bitcoin traded at $76,940 at 11:56 UTC on Thursday, down 2.1% over 24 hours, after the 30-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.353% — a level last reached in 2007 — and the two-year note pushed above 4.5% for the first time since 2024. The move lower came as US equity markets opened, with the largest token giving up the $77,000 round number it had defended through the Asian session.
Yields rose five to 10 basis points across maturities as oil prices extended their advance, according to Bloomberg data, and traders lifted the implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at next week's meeting to about 70%. Futures markets now fully price a move by October rather than December.
The repricing runs through the risk-free rate. A 30-year yield above 5.3% raises the return available on government debt, which lifts the discount rate applied to assets that generate no cash flow. Bitcoin's 24-hour volume was $41.2 billion, roughly in line with its seven-day average, and market capitalization stood near $1.52 trillion with dominance at 57.4%, per CoinGecko data. Ether fell 2.6% to $2,914.40, underperforming BTC, while the CoinDesk 20 index slipped 2.3%.
"Bitcoin is trading as a long-duration liquidity asset, and the long end of the Treasury curve is repricing faster than the front end," Nina Volkov, a rates strategist at Meridian Capital, said. "When the 30-year moves 10 basis points in a session, the cost of holding a non-yielding asset rises in real time."
Derivatives positioning showed the pressure building before the cash market open. Open interest across major venues held near $34.8 billion, and the aggregate funding rate on perpetual futures sat at +0.004%, down from +0.011% a day earlier — a sign that leveraged longs were trimming rather than adding. Liquidations over the prior 24 hours totaled $218 million, with $164 million of that in long positions, according to Coinglass.
The macro backdrop extends beyond rates. A firmer dollar and rising crude prices feed the same inflation impulse that is driving the Fed repricing, which leaves crypto correlated to the same duration trade as unprofitable technology equities. Bitcoin's 30-day correlation to the Nasdaq 100 has held above 0.6 through September, so a further leg higher in yields would pressure both.
The immediate test sits at $75,800, the low from the prior week's range, with $73,400 below that. A close back above $79,200 would put the $81,000 August high back in play. The next scheduled catalyst is the Fed's rate decision next week, followed by the September employment report; a 30-year yield that holds above 5.35% keeps the pressure on, while any retreat below 5.20% would remove the proximate cause of Thursday's decline.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
