Bitcoin steadies near $64,000 as 46% of supply sits in loss

Bitcoin traded near $64,000 on Aug. 12 with roughly 46 percent of its supply in unrealized loss, per CryptoQuant data. The token was down 2 percent over the prior 24 hours to $63,867.58, extending a year-long slide.

The 30-day moving average of CryptoQuant's Supply in Loss indicator has climbed toward levels last seen in the 2015, 2018-2019 and 2022 bear markets, when the metric peaked in the 50 percent to 55 percent range before prices established durable bottoms. Historically, extreme readings have clustered near major market lows rather than cycle tops, suggesting much of the bearish repricing may already have occurred.

Bitcoin's three-day chart shows a bear flag breakdown underway after price slipped below the pattern's rising support in June. The measured move points toward roughly $50,400, implying about 21 percent downside, while a separate bear pennant targets $46,400 if BTC decisively loses the $61,000-$62,000 support zone. BTC trades below its 20-day EMA at $64,900 and 50-day EMA near $69,200, with the relative strength index near 45 keeping momentum tilted bearish.

Order-flow data from the Aug. 10 breakdown adds nuance to the bearish structure. Sellers were aggressive near $63,865-$64,000 but failed to push price materially lower, with Bitcoin recovering from the low and closing near the top of its range, according to investingLive's tradeCompass. The consolidated score sits at -1/+10, improving, as short-term order flow (+3) offsets the bearish 30-minute structure (-4). The first repair test sits at $64,300-$64,400, with the major structural test at $64,875-$65,000. Sustained acceptance below $63,865 would invalidate the repair thesis.

Corporate selling adds to the overhang. Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, sold 1,690 coins for $108.6 million during the week ended Aug. 9 at an average of $64,262 per coin — below its $75,385 average cost basis — and sold 6.59 million common shares for $653.1 million, according to its 8-K filing. The board has authorized up to $1.25 billion of Bitcoin sales to fund a USD reserve. Prediction markets assign a 39 percent probability that Strategy announces additional sales in the Aug. 11-17 window, per Polymarket contracts.

The mining complex tracked Bitcoin lower. Riot Platforms fell 6 percent to $19.36, MARA Holdings dropped 6 percent to $9.52 and CleanSpark slid 5 percent to $11.69 in Monday trading, while the CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF declined 5 percent to $45.87.

A decisive break below $63,865 would open the path toward $63,365 and then the $61,000-$62,000 support zone, where the bear pennant's measured move targets $46,400. A reclaim and hold above $64,875-$65,000 would mark the first structural repair signal since the August breakdown.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.