Druckenmiller buys Tesla calls as FSD users top 1.48 million

Stanley Druckenmiller's Duquesne family office bought Tesla call options in the second quarter, a bet that may hinge on full self-driving software rather than Robotaxi.

The position, disclosed in a 13F filing, comes as Tesla trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio above 300, a multiple that rests almost entirely on the Optimus humanoid robot and Robotaxi network, according to The Motley Fool's analysis. Established automakers General Motors and Ford trade at single-digit forward-earnings multiples, while BYD carries a multiple below 20 times forward earnings.

Tesla shares closed at $345.13 on Aug. 21, down 1.7 percent, and have fallen more than 20 percent this year. The stock carries a market capitalization near $1.4 trillion, a forward P/E around 190 and a price-to-sales ratio near 11. Robotaxi cumulative paid miles passed 2.4 million, but quarterly additions stalled near 900,000 miles even as the service expanded into new cities. Much of the active fleet still operates with safety monitors in the cars, a sign the service remains a controlled pilot rather than the million-vehicle fleet Musk once described.

Active FSD users reached 1.48 million in the second quarter, up 56 percent year over year, with more than 55 percent of new North American deliveries including the feature. The recurring subscription revenue carries software-like margins, helping offset capital-intensive programs such as Optimus and Robotaxi. The expanding FSD base also feeds Tesla's proprietary driving data library, giving the company a real-world driving dataset no competitor has matched.

Nevada regulators this week approved a large expansion of Tesla's robotaxi operations, allowing more vehicles and broader geographic coverage, with plans for additional mission-control centers. The approval gives Tesla its largest single-market footprint for driverless testing to date.

Druckenmiller, who helped orchestrate the 1992 short of the British pound that generated a $1 billion profit, ran Duquesne Capital to average annual returns near 30 percent with no down years before closing the fund in 2010. His pattern-recognition record has repeatedly identified inflection points ahead of the crowd, which makes the Tesla position notable even as the stock trades well below its 52-week high of $498.83.

The position points to Druckenmiller betting on Tesla's software platform rather than its hardware ambitions. The next test is the third-quarter earnings report, where FSD user additions and Robotaxi fleet expansion will be measured.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.