The Michigan Senate race has become a proxy battle for the Democratic Party's identity, with progressive nominee Abdul El-Sayed holding a 4-point lead over Republican Mike Rogers even as a controversy over streamer Hasan Piker threatens to erode that advantage.
Abdul El-Sayed leads Mike Rogers 47-43 percent in Michigan's open Senate race, but the progressive nominee's association with streamer Hasan Piker — who made antisemitic remarks — threatens to undercut Democratic hopes of flipping the chamber.
"The energy is on the left in Michigan, as it is throughout the country, and that should help with turnout," said Daron Shaw, Republican pollster at the University of Texas. "But El-Sayed needs to reassure a wide range of Michigan Democrats — including Reagan Democrats, Jewish voters and Black voters — that he will serve their interests."
The EPIC-MRA survey of 600 likely voters conducted Aug. 22-28 found 10 percent undecided, with a margin of error of 4 percentage points. The race is one of 11 open Senate seats this year, with Republicans holding a 53-45 majority. Trump won Michigan 49.7-48.3 percent in 2024 after Biden took it 50.6-47.8 percent in 2020.
The outcome could determine Senate control in the 120th Congress. Democrats need to net at least four seats to take the majority, and Michigan is among their best pickup opportunities — but Piker's comments, including a 2019 statement that "America deserved 9/11" and recent remarks suggesting Jews are "asking for it" if attacked, give Rogers ammunition in a state with a significant Jewish voting bloc.
The controversy centers on Piker, a Twitch streamer with millions of followers who campaigned alongside El-Sayed during the August primary. El-Sayed narrowly defeated establishment candidate Haley Stevens, but his association with Piker has become a liability. During a 2019 livestream, Piker said "America deserved 9/11," a remark El-Sayed conceded was "dumb" during an Aug. 9 interview with "Meet the Press."
More recently, Piker said: "If Jews in America keep putting this idea out there that they are singularly invested in Israel, eventually someone is going to come around and take action, not against the state of Israel, mind you, but against American Jews." The Wall Street Journal editorial board characterized this as blaming Jews for potential attacks against them, writing that "Jews are at fault if they're attacked — they're asking for it."
Rogers courts crossover Democrats
Rogers has moved to capitalize on the controversy. Earlier this month, he launched a "Democrats for Mike Rogers" coalition at an event with Michigan state Rep. Karen Whitsett (D). "Michiganders are tired of anger and division," Rogers said at the launch. "This election is bigger than Republican versus Democrat, left versus right."
The GOP nominee faces headwinds of his own. Republicans must navigate an unpopular war in Iran, President Trump's sagging approval ratings — 67 percent of Michigan voters rated his presidency negatively in the EPIC-MRA survey — and concerns about the economy. Two-thirds of voters said the economy had worsened.
Schumer's dilemma
The controversy has put Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer in a difficult position. He has embraced El-Sayed, though the Michigan nominee has said he won't vote for Schumer as Senate leader. With Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez looking over his shoulder in his 2028 re-election year, Schumer faces pressure from the party's progressive wing even as the WSJ editorial board calls on him to publicly condemn Piker's "brand of antisemitism."
Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) has tried to distance herself from the controversy, saying she's "done" being asked about Piker. "So don't any reporter ask me again about Hasan Piker," she said. The WSJ editorial noted that "telling the press not to ask questions signals that a politician is too embarrassed to answer."
The general election is Tuesday, Nov. 3. Michigan's last Republican senator was Spencer Abraham, who left office in 2001, and the state has not elected a Republican to the Senate in over two decades. If El-Sayed's lead holds, it would mark a significant shift in a state that has been a battleground in every recent presidential cycle — and a test of whether the party's progressive wing can win in a true swing state.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
