Key Takeaways:
Gold traded near $4,115 an ounce on the COMEX, up from last week's $3,996 low, as traders positioned ahead of Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls report.
Gold closed above the double top at $4,115 and pushed to $4,136 on Friday, clearing the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages at $4,068 and $4,071, according to FXEmpire technical analysis. The relative strength index sits at 67, a bullish reading that has not yet reached overbought territory.
Central banks remain a structural buyer. Poland added 51 tonnes and China 33 tonnes in the second quarter, part of 289 tonnes of official purchases that rose 62 percent from a year earlier, the World Gold Council reported. First-half demand reached 2,522 tonnes, up 2 percent year over year, with total value at a record $380 billion. The Bank of Korea will begin buying domestically produced gold for the first time in 13 years.
Friday's payrolls report is the next catalyst. Economists expect July nonfarm payrolls of +95,000, down from 121,000 in June, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4 percent. A softer print would reinforce bets on a September Federal Reserve rate cut, with traders pricing a 59 percent probability of a hike, down from a 67 percent average.
Silver broke above the distribution top at $60.09, confirming bullish momentum after a range-bound stretch since mid-August. Price trades above the 50-day and 100-day EMAs at $58.53 and $58.69, with resistance at $60.99, $61.87 and $63.09. Support sits at the breakout level of $60.09, with $59.32 on a deeper pullback. The RSI at 64 keeps the structure bullish.
Silver at $60.09 is roughly 6 percent above the $56.68 lower-trendline target and about 1.5 percent from the $60.99 swing high, a scale that mirrors gold's own breakout from its July top. Both metals are trading near record territory, with gold about 2 percent below the $4,211 level that marks its next upside objective.
Silver's medium-term outlook rests on industrial demand from solar photovoltaics, AI infrastructure, power-grid expansion and advanced electronics, which outpaces investment flows. Brent crude near the mid-$80s a barrel keeps inflation concerns elevated, supporting negative real rates that favor precious metals.
The setup leaves both metals exposed to Friday's data. A payrolls miss would likely push gold toward $4,148 and then $4,181, while silver targets $61.00 to $62.00 in the coming sessions. A stronger print would test gold support at $4,115 and $4,079, with silver's breakout level at $60.09 the first line of defense.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
