Gold holds near $4,260 as Hormuz doubts revive risk premium

COMEX gold held near $4,260 an ounce on Thursday, up 0.5 percent, after Iranian officials cast doubt on a shipping deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi told the Islamic Republic News Agency that the agreement with Oman would not automatically reopen the waterway, while a senior Gulf official put the odds of a deal by Friday at 50 percent.

Initial jobless claims fell to 199,000 against a 202,000 consensus, and Challenger job cuts eased to 33,400 from 45,800, describing a labor market cooling through slower hiring rather than rising layoffs. The CME FedWatch tool now prices a 52.9 percent chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September, down from 63.4 percent a week earlier.

Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report is the next test, with a Reuters survey pointing to an 80,000 gain in July after June's 57,000, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.2 percent.

Hormuz Doubts Keep WTI Bid

Gold is climbing alongside crude rather than against it, a divergence that shows the geopolitical driver. WTI traded higher as Tehran cautioned that a shipping framework would not automatically reopen the waterway, which handles about 20 percent of global oil flows. US Vice President JD Vance told Fox News the talks were "messy," calling Iranians "extraordinarily difficult people," while Reuters reported the proposal could hand Tehran control over inbound traffic, a formulation Washington has repeatedly rejected. Yemen's Houthis also claimed attacks on two Saudi oil tankers.

Technical Levels Point to $4,304

On the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,253, holding above the 20-period simple moving average at $4,146 and the 100-period SMA at $4,073. The relative strength index at 72 points to overbought conditions that could temper immediate upside. Initial resistance sits at $4,276, ahead of a stronger barrier at $4,304, where fresh buying would be needed to extend the rally. On the downside, support is seen at $4,248, then $4,232, with the 20-period SMA at $4,146 providing deeper structural demand.

Silver held gains near $62 an ounce, tracking bullion higher, while gold at $4,260 sits roughly 3 percent below the 100-day SMA at $4,393. A confirmed Iran-Oman deal would likely strip the risk premium from bullion and crude, while a breakdown in talks could push gold toward that moving average. Lower energy prices would ease inflation pressure and reduce the case for a September Fed hike, a tailwind for the non-yielding metal.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.