Gold jumps 4.2% to $4,308 on Hormuz talks, central-bank buying

Gold rose 4.2 percent to $4,308 an ounce, the biggest daily gain in five months, after Trump said a Hormuz deal could come this week.

Spot gold touched $4,328.20 an ounce intraday before settling at $4,308, up $173.80, breaking a descending triangle that had capped prices since June 22, according to market data. The move also pushed the metal above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, the first time the 50-day has been breached since March.

World Gold Council data shows central banks bought 288.9 tonnes in the second quarter, up 62 percent year over year, the strongest Q2 on record. Poland added 51 tonnes to a record 632 tonnes, China bought 33 tonnes, and South Korea resumed purchases after 13 years.

Gold's next resistance sits near $4,400, a level aligned with the November-December 2025 turning point and the 23 percent Fibonacci retracement from the record high. Deutsche Bank targets $4,700 by year-end, while JPMorgan sees a $4,500 fourth-quarter average.

Hormuz Talks Fuel Geopolitical Premium

The rally's trigger was Trump's comment that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be announced Wednesday or the next day. Iranian and Omani negotiators have finalized a draft agreement awaiting approval from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, two regional officials told the Associated Press. The waterway carries about a fifth of the world's traded oil and natural gas, and its closure has driven Brent crude to around $80 a barrel, still well below conflict highs.

Central Banks Add 288.9 Tonnes in Q2

South Korea's return after a 13-year absence carries symbolic weight beyond its scale. The Bank of Korea plans to buy 4 to 5 tonnes a year from domestic copper and zinc smelting byproducts, keeping reserves near 104.4 tonnes. Its 90 tonnes bought in 2013 at an average $1,629 an ounce are now worth about $11.8 billion, a gain of roughly $7 billion. Poland's central bank governor Adam Glapinski said the bank has been buying on price pullbacks, targeting 700 tonnes.

Rate-Hike Bets Cool, Support Levels Mapped

CME FedWatch data shows a 45 percent probability the Federal Reserve holds rates in September, the highest in more than a month, lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold. Deutsche Bank analysts Michael Hsueh and Bryant Xu project a $4,700 year-end price, while JPMorgan's cut target still implies a $4,500 fourth-quarter average. The World Gold Council sees gold range-bound near $4,100 plus or minus 5 percent absent a major macro shift. Analysts caution that central-bank buying mostly underpins prices, with a sustained rally depending on retail and fund inflows. If momentum fades, initial support sits at the 50-day average of $4,243, then $4,200 and the former trendline near $4,070.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.