Grayscale declares Bitcoin bear market over as BTC holds above $64,500

Bitcoin traded at $64,500 to $66,000 on July 26 after Grayscale said the bear market has ended, reversing its forecast that the downturn could last until October.

"After analyzing on-chain flows, ETF demand, and macro conditions, we believe Bitcoin's bear market is behind us," Zach Pandl, Head of Research at Grayscale, said.

The call marks a sharp pivot from July 23, when Grayscale warned that Bitcoin's four-year cycle pattern pointed to a potential bottom in September or October. Bitcoin has lost nearly 48% since reaching a record above $124,000 in October 2025. The token traded near $63,661 as of 14:00 UTC on July 26, according to CoinGecko data.

The question now is whether Grayscale's bullish call marks a genuine turning point or a bear-market rally. Bitcoin faces resistance at $68,000 to $70,000, while the $60,000 region serves as critical support. A sustained move above $69,000 — the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, per Glassnode — would open room toward $84,000.

The Grayscale reversal comes as spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $981.2 million in net inflows across seven trading days from July 14, according to Santiment, snapping a prolonged period of outflows through May and June. BlackRock's IBIT, the largest Bitcoin fund by net assets, now holds just over 733,000 Bitcoin worth roughly $50 billion after selling almost 100,000 Bitcoin in recent months to meet redemption requests.

Yet beneath the ETF recovery, a divergence has emerged. The Coinbase Premium Index has remained negative for more than 900 cumulative hours, the longest stretch in two years, showing continued caution among professional traders. Analyst Darkfost attributed the selling pressure to sticky inflation, rising oil prices, and a less transparent Federal Reserve under its new chairman.

"ETF inflows are supporting prices, but the recovery has yet to gain confirmation from broader spot market demand," Darkfost noted, leaving the rally vulnerable if ETF inflows begin to fade.

Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst Eric Balchunas drew a parallel between Bitcoin ETFs and gold ETFs, which saw "spectacular gains, painful drawdowns and recoveries that may test investors' patience" over a 22-year history. "Both are wrappers around non-yielding stores of value that generate no cash flow, leaving investor sentiment — not earnings, coupons or government support — to drive performance," Balchunas wrote.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt offered a more cautious long-term view, saying Bitcoin will not reach its cycle peak until 2029, with a forecast range of $250,000 to $300,000. That contrasts with the $1 million target projected by Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood for 2030.

"Right now it's neutral sentiment," Brandt said. "Markets don't bottom on neutral sentiment. Markets bottom on panic and volume."

Grayscale's Pandl acknowledged that the traditional four-year halving cycle may have weakened as Bitcoin matures into a macro-sensitive asset tied to global liquidity, interest rates, and institutional portfolio decisions. "If macro factors are in the driver's seat, Bitcoin's price could bottom when these macro factors turn around," he said.

For now, the burden of proof stays with the bulls. Until Bitcoin reclaims $69,000 on steady inflows, the bear-market rally thesis remains intact.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.