Momentum stocks turn cheap after 25% AI-chip selloff

Momentum stocks have become attractively priced after the AI-chip sector's recent rout, creating a tactical entry point for ETF investors.

The rotation out of semiconductor names into defensive sectors has pushed momentum-factor valuations lower, with three exchange-traded funds positioned to capture the rebound, according to Barron's.

"Investors are rotating out of AI-chip names into defensive sectors, but the selloff has created a compelling entry point for momentum strategies," said Alastair Pinder, analyst at HSBC. "The competing narratives around China competition and hyperscaler spending are creating noise, not a structural breakdown."

The selloff was concentrated in semiconductor stocks, with Micron Technology falling more than 25% over four trading sessions before rebounding 9.6% in a single session. HSBC's analysis attributes 37% of recent volatility to fears that AI hyperscalers including Google, OpenAI and Anthropic are overspending on capacity — a dynamic that benefits memory chip suppliers in the near term. Another 26% stems from AI positioning capitulation, as investors exit the sector for defensive stocks such as pharmaceuticals, while 20% reflects concerns about Chinese DRAM manufacturer CXMT, which raised $8.5 billion in its recent IPO for production expansion.

The three recommended ETFs provide diversified exposure across the momentum factor spectrum, from large-cap growth to mid-cap technology names, without the single-stock risk that has punished semiconductor investors over the past week. The rotation into defensive sectors has been most pronounced in pharmaceuticals, while technology and semiconductor funds have seen net outflows.

The broader implications extend beyond semiconductors. If hyperscaler spending continues at current levels — a scenario that HSBC assigns a 37% probability weighting — memory and AI-chip suppliers will benefit from elevated pricing power through the second half of the year. Conversely, a pullback in hyperscaler spending would validate the defensive rotation but leave momentum stocks at even deeper discounts. The next catalyst comes in August, when major cloud providers report quarterly earnings and disclose their forward capital expenditure plans.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.