Nasdaq-100 futures gain 0.3% as oil plunge pulls yields lower

U.S. stock futures rose Monday as crude oil plunged after President Donald Trump called off planned strikes on Iran, pulling Treasury yields lower and lifting growth stocks. Nasdaq-100 futures gained 0.3%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 1.2% — pointing to a gain of more than 600 points — and S&P 500 futures advanced 0.6%.

"The oil drop opened the door this morning but the Iran story is a headline, not a deal, and crude comes right back if talks collapse," said James Hyerczyk, a technical analyst and author of two books on market analysis.

Brent crude fell 5.8% to $82.85 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate dropped 6.9% to $78.85, after Trump wrote on Truth Social that he was holding off on attacking Iran "subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL" to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The 10-year Treasury yield declined nearly 6 basis points to 4.68%, down from Friday's close at its highest level since January 2025. The 30-year eased to about 5.23% after touching its highest since 2007 last week.

Iran said there are no immediate plans for direct talks with Washington and that discussions over the Strait of Hormuz are with Oman only. The market is trading a diplomatic headline, not a deal — if that story reverses, crude bounces and yields turn higher.

Amazon shares, which jumped 15% Friday to pace the three major indexes after strong cloud-computing results, pointed up a further 2% before the bell. Apple shares, which sank 7% to lead S&P 500 and Nasdaq decliners last session, were less than 1% higher premarket. Bristol Myers Squibb rose 3% following a Financial Times report that the pharmaceutical giant was in talks to combine with AstraZeneca, whose U.S.-listed shares fell 7%. Marriott International and Tyson Foods declined 3% and 2.5%, respectively, in post-earnings moves.

The U.S. dollar index ticked lower to 99.81, while gold futures edged down to $4,100 an ounce and Bitcoin traded around $62,700.

What's at Stake This Week

The relief rally faces its first test after Monday's close when Palantir reports earnings. AMD, McDonald's and SpaceX — issuing its first quarterly report as a public company — follow on Tuesday. Friday's July payrolls report, with consensus at 87,500 jobs after June's weak 57,000, will determine whether the Federal Reserve's September rate path shifts. Rate futures price a 79.4 percent chance of a 25-basis-point hike at the September FOMC meeting.

The Fed's 9-3 vote split last week — with three officials voting for an immediate hike — means one firm data point could reassemble the September trade. Strong wages on a solid payrolls headline would push the rate premium back and put yields where they were last week. A miss keeps yields falling and gives growth stocks more room, but only if crude stays down with it.

On the technical side, September E-mini S&P 500 futures are trading above a short-term retracement zone at 7,493.00 to 7,540.50 and the 50-day moving average at 7,531.10, giving the index an upside bias toward resistance at 7,632.00 and 7,648.75 before the all-time high at 7,693.75. The September E-mini Dow has reclaimed its retracement zone at 52,643 to 52,882, with main tops at 53,105 and 53,113 as the next targets before the 53,636 record.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.