Key Takeaways:
Russia's Supreme Court barred the only registered anti-war party from September's parliamentary ballot, removing a rare outlet for dissent as the war's economic toll reaches Russian households.
Russia's Supreme Court on Aug. 10 disqualified the liberal Yabloko party from September's parliamentary elections, stripping the only registered anti-war force from a ballot as gasoline prices jump 19.9 percent and President Vladimir Putin's approval rating slips to 70 percent.
"Excluding Yabloko from the election means refusing dialogue with people who ask questions that are uncomfortable for the authorities," Grigory Yavlinsky, Yabloko's founder, said.
The ruling, on a lawsuit filed Aug. 7 by the pro-Kremlin Rodina party, annulled the registration of Yabloko's 269-name federal list. Judge Vyacheslav Kirillov — the same judge who declared the rights group Memorial "extremist" earlier this year — granted Rodina's claims alleging undeclared foreign funding and copyright violations in campaign materials.
The decision removes a potential outlet for Russians to register discontent as Ukraine's long-range strikes hit military and energy targets deep inside Russia. Consumer gasoline prices rose 19.9 percent year-over-year in June, Interfax reported, and nearly all regions have seen shortage-induced restrictions on fuel sales this summer.
War Reaches Russian Households
Yabloko, which has not won a legislative seat since 2003, campaigned under the slogan "For peace and freedom" on a 43-word program calling for "a ceasefire agreement, diplomacy, and the achievement of peace." Even a modest showing would have given the Kremlin a measure of anti-war sentiment, and its absence from the ballot complicates independent election monitoring — the party can no longer send observers to polling stations.
The economic strain is becoming visible. Ukraine has struck logistics hubs for the e-commerce company Wildberries, which Kyiv says supplied the Russian military with drone components, wiping out inventories for small-business owners. "I'm officially broke," one distraught vendor posted on social media. Data from Yandex, Russia's main search engine, analyzed by the opposition outlet Meduza, showed a surge in queries about when the war would end, concentrated in regions where air defenses have largely failed against Ukraine's long-range strikes.
Kremlin's Approval Math
Putin's approval rating began the year near 80 percent but dropped to 66 percent in the week of July 12, hovering at 70 percent since, according to the Kremlin-linked Public Opinion Foundation. A separate FOM survey found 57 percent of Russians worried about the country's situation at the end of July — the highest level since mobilization in autumn 2022.
Margarita Zavadskaya of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs said the summer of 2026 has been the most unsettling for Russians since the full-scale invasion began, citing drone attacks, deaths, warehouse fires and rumors of fresh mobilization. "For the Kremlin, the ideal scenario would be a boring election with low turnout and no noteworthy events," she said. "Right now, though, this seems unlikely."
Political scientist Ivan Preobrazhensky said the ban may reflect infighting between Kremlin factions — security hawks who want to crush dissent and those hoping the war ends soon. Yulia Navalnaya, widow of the late opposition leader Alexei Navalny, said the Kremlin "got scared" after initially allowing Yabloko to register, watching people begin to join forces.
Ten parties will compete for the 450 seats in the State Duma in the Sept. 18-20 vote, with pro-Kremlin parties led by United Russia widely expected to dominate. Yabloko said it will appeal within the five-day deadline; the ruling does not take legal effect until appeal proceedings are complete. Hundreds of mostly young supporters gathered outside the courthouse, chanting "Shame!" and carrying apples — a reference to the party's name, which means "apple" in Russian.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
