Tom Lee sees Bitcoin at $150,000 as September Fed meeting approaches

Bitcoin traded near $78,000 as Tom Lee set a $150,000 target, calling September fear the contrarian trade ahead of the Fed's Sept. 15 meeting.

Lee, chairman of Bitmine, said Ethereum is undervalued relative to Bitcoin and that ETH could reach $6,000 if BTC surpasses $150,000, according to comments reported Aug. 31. He cited the potential passage of the CLARITY Act, a US regulatory framework for crypto, as a key driver that could unlock institutional capital. Increased capital inflows from Asia and "compensatory purchases" by global institutions to improve quarterly performance were also cited as positive factors for Ethereum.

The call comes as Bitcoin digests a roughly 24 percent August gain that briefly pushed the asset above $80,000. Binance's Bitcoin reserves climbed to approximately 687,000 BTC, the highest level recorded in 2026, while exchange stablecoin reserves shrank — a combination suggesting distribution rather than accumulation. CryptoSlate's September forecast model projects a median price of $81,319 by Sept. 29, with an 80th-percentile estimate of $91,049 and a 20th-percentile estimate of $72,502. The $18,547 gap between those estimates quantifies the uncertainty around the median path.

The Fed's Sept. 15 meeting is the immediate event to watch. Hawkish comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole raised odds of a September rate hike, sending BTC below $78,000 intraday on Friday and dragging Ethereum, Solana, and XRP down alongside it. Support sits at $76,800-$77,000, with resistance at $80,000-$81,500. A break below $76,800 opens a retest of the low $70,000s, while a reclaim of $80,000 could set up a run toward Lee's target.

ETF flows and the $80,000 reclaim

Spot Bitcoin ETF demand underpinned much of August's rally. A nine-day US spot Bitcoin ETF inflow streak totaling about $3.04 billion ended with net outflows of $201.9 million on Aug. 28, according to CryptoSlate. The earlier cumulative inflows — including $2.23 billion of spot demand that helped clear speculative leverage — still support the price structure. Bitcoin's market cap stands at roughly $1.58 trillion, with 24-hour volume of $32.81 billion, up 94 percent.

Lee's $150,000 target sits well above Standard Chartered's year-end forecast of $100,000. The ETH/BTC ratio, which measures Ethereum's performance against Bitcoin, could retest its previous level of 0.08, Lee said. In a more cautious scenario, even a recovery to 0.04 would create significant upside for Ethereum. Total crypto market cap ticked up to roughly $2.63 trillion, though 24-hour volume fell nearly 45 percent to about $184.44 billion — a classic post-volatility hangover.

What to watch in September

The transmission chain for September is clear: Fed commentary on Sept. 15 → ETF flow direction → BTC's ability to hold $77,000 and reclaim $80,000. Lee's contrarian thesis depends on September fear being overpriced. If ETF inflows resume and BTC reclaims $80,000, the path toward higher targets opens. If $76,800 breaks, the low $70,000s become the next test. Lee also acknowledged that asset tokenization and AI-powered finance will be key areas determining the direction of the crypto market over the next five years.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.