Trump says US Navy controls Hormuz carrying 20% of world oil

President Donald Trump accused Iran's leadership of hypocrisy on Monday, saying Tehran begged for negotiations while publicly denying them, as the US Navy maintains a blockade over the Strait of Hormuz that carries 20 percent of the world's oil.

"Do I think that there may be a framework for opening the Strait of Hormuz? Maybe, could be. Do I think that there's an actual agreement on the nuclear issue? Absolutely not," said Charles Kupchan, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Oil prices fell more than 4 percent after Trump called off planned strikes, with Brent crude sliding $4.08 to $83.85 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate down $4.01 to $80.66. Iran largely closed the strait in early March after US and Israeli air strikes began Feb. 28, reopening it only partially under a June 17 memorandum of understanding before closing it again last week.

The standoff leaves global energy supplies exposed through a waterway that moved one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas before the war. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the Pentagon remains "locked and loaded" for attacks at levels "not seen since World War II" if negotiations fail.

Iran denies direct talks as Oman channel advances

In a social media post, Trump wrote that Iran's leadership is "extremely hypocritical," claiming Tehran "begged — some say 'pleaded' — for talks" while publicly declaring "no talks, nothing discussed, only dealing with Oman." He asserted the strait "is already fully controlled by the US Navy, under our blockade, or in America's 'steel wall' control," adding that "nothing gets in or out of Iran without our approval, unless a deal is reached, or they surrender completely."

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Tehran is "not going to host a delegation or be guests of a country during these days," while confirming talks with Oman over the strait have been under way for the past seven to eight days. Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said those negotiations are in their "final stages," focused on agreeing a new shipping route through the waterway.

Blockade and the energy risk premium

The US naval blockade has diverted at least 12 ships and disabled tankers, while Iran attacked vessels following an Oman-approved route through the southern part of the strait. The closure pushed energy prices higher and stoked broader inflation, adding political pressure on Trump to resolve the conflict.

The last time Iran fully closed the strait in early March, Brent crude spiked to multi-year highs before the June 17 memorandum eased flows. The vague wording of that agreement triggered the current dispute over shipping routes, with Iran rejecting an Omani proposal backed by Gulf states to manage the strait they share.

Trump said he called off the strikes at the request of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which urged him to pursue a deal instead. He declined to set a deadline for an agreement, saying, "Would I rather make a deal? I'm not looking to kill people because people die, a lot of people die, and we don't want that."

Analysts remain skeptical that the pattern of escalation and last-minute retreats builds negotiating credibility. "At some point, all credibility for negotiations is going to be lost," said Trita Parsi, executive vice president at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. "The credibility of actually sticking to a deal is questionable."

Israel has signaled it will act independently if diplomacy fails. "With or without an agreement, and regardless of any external commitments, if Iran attempts to renew its nuclear program or advance its ballistic missile industries, we will be there," said Eli Cohen, Israel's energy minister and a member of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's security cabinet.

If talks collapse, US officials have signaled readiness to resume strikes on Iranian infrastructure, a scenario that would likely push Brent back above $90 a barrel and deepen the inflation shock already rippling through European consumption. If a strait framework emerges, traders expect crude to retrace toward pre-war levels near $70, though a full nuclear accord remains, in Kupchan's words, "far off in the distance."

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.