XRP holds above $1.13 breakout as analyst targets $6.40 and $30

XRP traded at $1.13 as of 14:30 UTC on July 23, holding above a multi-year breakout level that a veteran analyst said could fuel a rally to $6.40 in the near term and $30 over the long run.

"The breakout retest is complete — holding $0.85 to $0.88 is the key," Egrag Crypto, a technical analyst with more than 100,000 followers on X, said. "Reclaiming $1.23 and $1.65 opens the path toward $3 to $3.50."

The analyst identified the $0.85-$0.88 range as the critical support zone, encompassing the bottom of a multi-year symmetrical triangle, the White Bridge pattern, and the expected retest level. Sustained monthly closes below that range would invalidate the bullish setup. On the upside, the first measured-move target sits at $6.40, with a macro projection of $30 contingent on acceptance above prior highs.

The bullish structure is reinforced by on-chain data showing whale accumulation accelerating and XRPL daily payments exceeding 500,000 transactions. However, XRP ETF inflows have cooled from a $131.94 million peak in May to just $12.43 million so far in July, signaling that institutional demand may be fading even as retail and whale activity strengthens.

Golden Cross and Cup-and-Handle Bolster Technical Setup

XRP's price action has produced two bullish chart patterns in recent weeks. A golden cross formed when the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average, a signal historically associated with improving medium-term momentum. Separately, a cup-and-handle pattern has been developing since early July, with the handle forming as XRP consolidates near $1.13.

The 20-day exponential moving average sits at $1.11130, providing immediate support, while the 50-day EMA at $1.14479 acts as nearby resistance. Bollinger Bands place the middle band at $1.11091 and the upper band at $1.16209, suggesting a breakout above $1.16 could accelerate buying pressure. On the downside, a drop below $1.13 exposes $1.12, then the $1.09 support zone.

Whale Accumulation Offsets Cooling ETF Demand

On-chain data reveals a notable shift in holder behavior. Whale selling pressure has dropped to its lowest level since 2025, according to blockchain metrics, while large holders have been increasing their XRP positions. XRPL daily payment activity has climbed above 500,000 transactions, marking one of the strongest levels of network utilization in recent months.

The divergence between on-chain strength and institutional flows presents a mixed picture. XRP ETF inflows have declined for three consecutive months, from $131.94 million in May to $59.46 million in June and $12.43 million in July, per available fund data. The Hodler Net Position Change metric, which tracks whether long-term holders are adding or trimming coins, has also turned lower since July 19, easing from about 231 million to roughly 226 million XRP.

Key Levels to Watch

XRP's immediate hurdle sits at $1.15, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. A clean break above that level would put the cup neckline near $1.16 in play, with $1.18 and $1.21 opening up as the next targets. Above those, the analyst-identified levels of $1.23 and $1.65 represent the next major resistance zones before the $3.00 to $3.50 range.

On the downside, a sustained move below $1.13 exposes $1.12, then the $1.09 support. A fall below $1.05 would void the cup-and-handle pattern entirely. The $0.85 to $0.88 range remains the ultimate support floor for the macro breakout thesis.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.