XRP holds near $1 as Clarity Act vote looms and XRPL activity surges

XRP changed hands at $1.10 on July 12, up 0.84% on the day but down 41% year to date, as traders weigh a US regulatory vote that could redefine the token's legal status against an XRP Ledger whose on-chain activity is rising even as prices stagnate.

"The market is pricing the Clarity Act as a binary event for XRP's institutional access," said Jason Wu, on-chain analyst at Edgen. "ETF flows alone won't break the $1 resistance without the classification question resolved."

Spot XRP ETFs have accumulated $1.49 billion in cumulative net inflows since launching in November 2025, with assets under management near $1.05 billion across seven funds, according to CoinGecko data. But the streak showed its first cracks in July: a $7.29 million outflow on July 8 from the Bitwise XRP ETF, the largest single-day withdrawal since March. On the ledger, tokenized real-world assets crossed $3.5 billion, more than triple the level at the start of the year, while RLUSD reached a $1.72 billion market capitalization and moved $18 billion in the first quarter alone, per DefiLlama data.

The merged draft of the CLARITY Act is due the week of July 13, with floor action targeted before the August 7 recess. Passage would classify XRP as a digital commodity under CFTC oversight, unlocking pension and sovereign wealth fund allocations that JPMorgan estimates could drive $4 billion to $8.4 billion in first-year ETF inflows. Failure would remove the single catalyst the market has visibly responded to — the token jumped 4.5% within an hour of the bill clearing committee on May 14.

The on-chain divergence

While the price story remains inconclusive, the XRP Ledger's technical infrastructure is advancing. Version 3.2.0 of the core software has been installed by 89% of validators on the Unique Node List, surpassing the 80% activation threshold, though the upgrade requires that level of support to hold for a full two weeks before taking effect. A separate on-ledger vote for the amendment fixCleanup3_2_0, which bundles security fixes for lending, vaults and multi-purpose tokens, is progressing more slowly.

The divergence between network growth and price is stark. Active addresses on the XRP Ledger fell to 25,350 on July 10, the second-lowest day of 2026, and new wallet creation dropped to 2,130 — the lowest since November 2024, according to Santiment data. Yet large holders controlling roughly 68% of the circulating supply continue moving coins into cold storage rather than selling, creating a floor near $1 that has held through seven separate probes of the $1.04 to $1.06 zone.

What the forecasters see

Standard Chartered entered 2026 with an $8 year-end target for XRP before cutting to $2.80 in February, while leaving its 2030 target at $28. Bitwise carries a $4.94 year-end forecast. JPMorgan's contribution is conditional: $4 billion to $8.4 billion of first-year ETF inflows if the CLARITY Act passes, with no comparable estimate under failure. The dispersion — a $1.70 to $28 range depending on the discount rate applied to institutional adoption — reflects a market waiting on classification rather than conviction.

For traders, the immediate levels are clear. A daily close above the 20-day exponential moving average at $1.11 would offer the first confirmation of breakout conviction, opening a path toward the $1.19 to $1.23 zone. A break below $1.09 could accelerate selling pressure and retest the $1.01 low. The next 26 days contain the merged CLARITY draft, a possible floor vote, the July escrow release, and the validator vote on the lending amendment — an unusual density of resolution for a single month.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.