XRP whales drive 55% of Binance withdrawals as $1 floor tested

XRP whales pulled more than half of all Binance withdrawals in a single day, yet the token still can't break past $1.25.

XRP held near $1 on Aug. 4 as whale wallets moving over 1 million tokens drove 55% of all Binance withdrawals, exchange flow data shows.

The accumulation pulled the exchange supply ratio down to 0.03, according to exchange flow data, shrinking the XRP available for immediate sale after a $1.06 billion token unlock.

On Binance, wallets moving over 1 million XRP accounted for 55% of all withdrawals, while sharks buying between 100,000 and 1 million tokens made up 24.5%. On Coinbase, sharks drove 55.8% of withdrawals and whales another 15%.

The $1 floor faces pressure from a weekly RSI divergence pointing to selling, with $0.95 the closest area of interest. Kalshi traders put a 50% chance of XRP falling below $1 in August and a 63% chance of $0.75 as the year's low, even as 67% expect the token to end 2026 between $1 and $1.25.

Whale accumulation meets a $1.25 ceiling

XRP traded at $1.07, down 0.99% in 24 hours, with a market cap near $68 billion and 24-hour volume around $877 million, CoinGecko data shows. The token has been capped by a falling channel since May 14, with every rally attempt stalling at resistance between $1.15 and $1.18.

Korean exchanges show a different picture. On Upbit, XRP ranks third among 275 Korean won-denominated markets by 24-hour volume, and combined Upbit and Bithumb bids within 1% of spot outweigh asks by roughly two to one, a 34% gap in favor of buyers.

A daily close above $1.18 would break the channel and reopen the path toward $1.30, while a close below $1.07 exposes the $0.98 to $1.00 zone and would invalidate the accumulation thesis.

Prediction markets split on direction

Kalshi traders priced an 86% chance of XRP rising above $1.10 in August and a 38% chance of trading above $1.20. The odds of breaking below $0.90 were 11%, while the probability of ending the year above $1.25 stood at 39%.

The macro backdrop adds risk. The Senate shelved the Clarity Act, which would codify XRP's commodity classification into law, to prioritize a Russia sanctions bill and federal nominations. Standard Chartered's conditional $8 XRP target depends on full Senate passage plus $4 billion to $8 billion in new ETF inflows.

The token peaked near $3.40 in mid-2025 and has logged lower highs and lower lows for months. The average directional index sits at 11.2, one of the weakest readings all summer, pointing to a trendless market where false breakouts are common.

Holding the top of the two-and-a-half-year range at $0.95 could keep XRP between $1 and $1.25. A break below that level would likely push the token toward $0.90, matching the bearish bets on prediction markets.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.