Key Takeaways:
A new CBS News poll reveals Americans overwhelmingly want the Iran war to end — but not because they think the US won.
Just 22% of Americans believe the Trump administration's memorandum of understanding with Iran favors the United States, while 37% say it's better for Iran and 41% view it as equal, a CBS News-YouGov survey found.
"The public is not convinced the administration thinks the US met its goals, but rather that it is simply prioritizing ending the conflict now," said Anthony Salvanto, CBS News director of elections and surveys.
The poll of 2,519 US adults, conducted June 17-19 after the release of the 14-point deal, showed 69% of Americans and 45% of Republicans believe the agreement will not permanently stop Iran's nuclear program. Two-thirds said the administration reached the accord because it wants the conflict over, not because objectives were achieved. Only 36% approve of Trump's handling of Iran, while 64% disapprove.
The findings highlight the political risk for Trump heading into the midterm elections, with 57% of Americans saying the war created more problems than it solved and 52% saying the military action launched in late February was not worth it, according to a separate Reuters-Ipsos poll that put Trump's approval rating at 34%, the lowest of his second term.
GOP Base Shows Rare Fracture
The deal has exposed unusual divisions within Trump's political base. Among self-identified MAGA voters, 56% said the US should end the conflict now, while 44% said the war should continue until Iran gives up more, the CBS poll found. For all Republicans, the split was 60% to 40%.
Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) posted that "Reagan is rolling over in his grave" over the agreement. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), a prominent Trump ally, said it is "not remotely in America's interest" to pay for Iran's reconstruction. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) warned that if the deal fails, Trump will "take the Strait of Hormuz over by force."
Oil, Strait of Hormuz, and the Economic Calculus
The war's economic toll has been the primary driver of public discontent. The Strait of Hormuz, through which about 21% of global oil trade passes, was shut by Iran during the conflict, sending gasoline prices higher in the US. The CBS poll found 42% of Americans now expect gas prices to go down, while 35% expect them to stay flat and 23% expect further increases.
Under the memorandum of understanding, Iran can resell oil without sanctions and access $300 billion for reconstruction — though Trump has insisted US taxpayers will not fund that. The deal gives the US and Iran 60 days to negotiate a final peace plan, with VP JD Vance saying Iran has agreed to allow International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors back into the country.
The last time a US administration negotiated a ceasefire with Iran under comparable domestic political pressure was the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which then-candidate Trump condemned as a "disaster" and withdrew from in 2018. That deal was viewed skeptically by the American public at the time, with Gallup showing just 27% approval.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
