Bitcoin climbs to $64,000 as US whales fuel Coinbase Premium breakout

US whale demand pushed Bitcoin from $58,000 to $64,000 as the Coinbase Premium Index reclaimed its 14-day moving average for the first time in two months.

Bitcoin rose 11% from $58,000 to $64,105 as US whale demand pushed the Coinbase Premium Index above its 14-day moving average, CryptoQuant data shows. The largest cryptocurrency traded at $64,105.27 as of 14:00 UTC, up 1.7% in the past 24 hours.

"The Coinbase Premium Index for both BTC and ETH remains in negative territory, but both have bounced off their local lows," Burak Kesmeci, a contributor at CryptoQuant, said. "On top of that, both metrics managed to reclaim their SMA14. This is what's behind Bitcoin's move from 58K to 64K."

The Coinbase Premium Index — the difference in price between Coinbase's and Binance's BTC/USDT pairs — sits at -0.08, having last flipped positive on daily timeframes more than two months ago. The 30-day change in total Bitcoin demand recovered from -650,000 BTC in early June, the deepest negative reading since 2022, toward neutral. Speculative futures demand has turned positive while spot selling eased to its slowest pace since mid-May, CryptoQuant data shows. The firm's Bull Score Index, an aggregate of on-chain, market and valuation conditions on a 0-to-100 scale, stands at 20, inside the bearish zone at or below 40.

"Once again, U.S. whale activity is proving to be the leading data point for trend direction," Kesmeci said. "The current picture is a catalyst for a short-term bounce — but for a real long-term regime change, this metric needs to break above zero." CryptoQuant said a durable rally would require the Bull Score Index to climb above 60, while $65,000 represents the next crucial resistance level, according to multiple analysts.

ETF flows show fragile recovery

US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded their first net inflows after a record $2.7 billion losing streak, though investor sentiment remains sensitive to price moves. On July 9, a third straight day of net outflows totaled $95.3 million, Farside Investors data shows. Bitcoin Suisse, a crypto finance provider, described a "bottom signal framework flashing" in a thread on X, saying "eight weeks of ETF outflows. Bitcoin at a 21-month low. This week, something shifted."

Valuation and seasonality add floor

The on-chain trader unrealized profit/loss margin for coins held one to three months dropped below -24% in early June, under the -12% threshold CryptoQuant treats as undervalued. Readings at such extremes have historically marked local bottoms as short-term holders capitulate, the firm said, and the margin has recovered as price bounced off $57,700. July has ranked among Bitcoin's stronger months across the past decade, closing higher in most years. The pattern held during the bear cycles of 2018 and 2022, when Bitcoin gained about 20% and 17% during the month, respectively.

Over $215 million in leveraged cryptocurrency positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with short positions accounting for about $163 million and Bitcoin alone representing nearly $100 million of the total, CoinGlass data shows.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.