Bitcoin edges up 0.13% as Trump holds off on Iran strikes

Bitcoin rose 0.13% to $63,153 on Sunday as President Donald Trump held off on strikes against Iran, lifting risk appetite across digital assets. Ethereum gained 0.03% to $1,867.56, while XRP climbed 1.68% to $1.07 and Dogecoin added 0.26% to $0.0700, as of 21:10 UTC.

The move follows Trump's June 12 announcement that Mideast allies had established parameters for a deal to end the Iran war, with the US agreeing to delay new military strikes while negotiations move forward, according to the White House. The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, scheduled for signing June 17, would establish a 60-day window for negotiating final peace terms.

Bitcoin has shown notable correlation with oil price movements throughout the conflict. When the Strait of Hormuz is under threat, oil prices spike, risk sentiment deteriorates, and Bitcoin trades more like a risk asset than a safe haven, according to CryptoTicker market data. The pattern has been consistent enough that traders have started using oil futures as a leading indicator for short-term Bitcoin moves.

The geopolitical relief comes as Bitcoin remains under pressure from broader macro headwinds. The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% on July 29 in a 9-3 vote, with three officials dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point hike. CME FedWatch now assigns a 61.4% probability to a September hike, up from 50.6% a month earlier.

Bitcoin peaked at $126,000 in October 2025 and has lost roughly half its value since then. It bottomed at $58,000 on July 1, its lowest price in 21 months, before recovering 13% through July to reach $65,500. The asset closed July at $63,700 and has been capped below $65,500 by selling from recent buyers who acquired BTC at an average of $68,000 to $69,000.

August's Historical Headwinds

August has been Bitcoin's weakest month since it started trading in 2013. Bitcoin has closed August in the red in nine of the last 13 years, with a median August return of negative 7.49%. The last four Augusts have all been red, with an average loss of 10% across the period.

Key support sits at $60,000, which Bitcoin last closed below in June. A sustained loss of $62,500 opens a path toward the $60,000 liquidation target, according to Marex analysts. To the upside, the 20-day EMA near $64,288 and the 50-day EMA near $64,891 form the immediate resistance band, with the 100-day at $67,481 and the 200-day at $73,133 keeping the medium-term trend corrective.

The next events to watch are the jobs report on August 7 and July's inflation reading on August 12, which could determine whether the Fed proceeds with a September hike. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh then speaks at the Jackson Hole symposium from August 27 to 29.

If the Iran peace deal materializes and inflation cools, Bitcoin could reclaim $66,000 and target $68,000 to $70,000. A hot inflation reading or a breakdown in negotiations could push BTC back toward the $55,000 to $58,000 range.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.