Bitcoin holds $77,000 as ETF demand offsets Warsh's hawkish Fed stance

Bitcoin fell 4% to $76,871 after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech, but ETF and spot demand has lifted it back above $78,000.

"The setup is healthy, with spot and ETF demand absorbing whale selling and macro pressure," Bitfinex analysts said.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $201.9 million in net outflows on Aug. 28, ending a nine-session inflow streak that had drawn about $2.8 billion, according to data cited by Delta Exchange. Traders raised bets on a September rate hike to 57 percent from 30 percent before Warsh's speech, per CME FedWatch. Bitcoin's market cap has recovered to $1.580 trillion, with dominance over altcoins above 58.5 percent on CoinGecko.

The $77,000-$76,000 zone is the key support to hold; a decisive break could trigger further profit-taking, while resistance sits at $79,400-$80,800. Bitcoin needs a monthly close above $80,000 to regain momentum, said Prateek Gupta, head of business at Mudrex.

Bitcoin gained about 25 percent in August and more than 40 percent from its bear market low, briefly touching $81,500 — a 15-week high — before Warsh's comments on Thursday triggered the reversal. The asset remains about 40 percent below its all-time high of roughly $126,000 reached in October. Institutional demand stayed strong through the week, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracting $924.48 million despite Friday's outflow, while Ethereum ETFs added $824.42 million, according to WazirX founder Nischal Shetty.

Whale activity has been absorbed rather than amplified. More than 6,427 dormant BTC worth $507 million moved in August, including coordinated batches from wallets dating back to 2014, according to the CoinDCX Research Team. Buyers have stayed active around the $77,000-$78,000 region, CoinSwitch Markets Desk said.

Can Institutional Demand Outweigh a Hawkish Fed?

Ethereum has struggled to reclaim $2,500, while BNB sits below $700 and XRP has lost the $1.40 support — a sign the macro repricing is hitting risk assets broadly even as Bitcoin's institutional bid holds. The total crypto market cap has recovered to about $2.7 trillion.

The tug-of-war now hinges on whether sustained ETF inflows can offset a Fed that markets increasingly expect to hike. With September odds near 60 percent, a decisive break below $77,000 would open the door to a deeper correction, while a monthly close above $80,000 would re-establish the uptrend. Investors should avoid aggressive positioning while macro uncertainty remains elevated, said Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.