Bitcoin rises 2% to $64,000 as June CPI miss fuels rate-cut hopes

Bitcoin rose 2.3% to $64,300 after the June Consumer Price Index fell 0.4% month-over-month, the steepest decline since April 2020.

"This print should help temper what had become an excessively hawkish market tilt to the monetary policy outlook," Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz, said.

The headline annual rate landed at 3.5%, below the 3.8% Dow Jones consensus, driven by a 5.7% drop in the energy index. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, held at 2.6% year over year versus a 2.9% forecast. Treasury yields eased and the dollar weakened as traders repriced rate expectations. Fed funds futures now price a hold at the July 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, with a 25-basis-point hike still expected in September.

The question for Bitcoin is whether a single energy-driven CPI print can shift the Fed's trajectory. Gasoline prices fell nearly 10% in June, but crude has since rebounded above $80 a barrel as the U.S. reimposed a naval blockade on Iranian shipping, threatening to reverse the disinflationary impulse. Bitcoin's 30-day average ETF net flows remain in an outflow regime since mid-May, though daily redemptions have slowed to $88.9 million from $193 million in early June, Bitfinex analysts wrote.

$220 Million in Shorts Liquidated as BTC Tests Resistance

The CPI-driven move triggered more than $220 million in crypto short liquidations across exchanges in 24 hours, Coinglass data shows. Bitcoin briefly touched $64,400 before settling near $63,800 as of 14:30 UTC, still within the $61,600-to-$64,700 range that has contained price action over the past seven days.

Ethereum outperformed, gaining 5.4% to around $1,890, as the broader crypto market capitalized on the macro relief. The correlation between BTC and ETH remains elevated, with both assets trading as risk-on proxies rather than on their own fundamentals.

Bitfinex analysts wrote to Bitcoin Magazine that Bitcoin ETF demand remains tied to macro conditions, with the bid appearing on calm days and pulling back on volatile ones. The 30-day average of ETF net flows has been in an outflow regime since mid-May 2026, though daily redemptions have eased from $193 million in early June to $88.9 million now — a slowing decline that still hasn't found a floor for institutional demand.

The Fed's September Calculus

Despite the cooler headline, the Fed's preferred gauge — core and services inflation — showed less progress. Shelter costs rose 0.1% month-over-month, and services ex-energy were flat. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has flagged AI-driven energy demand as a new source of inflation, complicating the path to rate cuts.

Thomas Perfumo, chief economist at Kraken, described the print as "more a reason for cautious optimism than alarm," adding that a broader inflationary impulse is shrinking. The bull case for risk assets requires several more months of confirming data, he said.

The gasoline drop that flattered the June number could reverse quickly. President Trump reinstated a naval blockade on Iranian shipping and moved to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz, pushing crude above $80. A sustained oil rebound would feed directly into the inflation the Fed has fought to contain.

On the downside, $62,000 remains a key reference point for risk. Below that, traders expect attention to shift to prior supports around $60,000. Resistance sits at $64,800, where a pool of liquidity could draw price action if momentum holds. The next major markers include Q2 earnings from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Bank of America this week, followed by the July FOMC decision in two weeks.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.