Bitcoin and major cryptocurrencies fell Monday as Middle East tensions and elevated oil prices dampened risk appetite across global markets. Dogecoin gained while majors slid, and an analyst warned Bitcoin must quickly reclaim its key support level or the bull-market thesis fails.
Bitcoin fell Monday toward the $60,200 support zone as Middle East tensions and elevated crude prices dampened risk appetite across crypto markets, with an analyst warning that a failed bounce from this level would signal the end of the bull market.
The $60,200 level marks the 2024 Value Area Low on the weekly chart, a zone where buyers have responded in recent sessions. The analyst cautioned that acceptance below this level would open the door to a deeper correction toward the $40,000 area, which aligns with the 2023 Value Area Low.
Ethereum and XRP also declined Monday, tracking Bitcoin lower as the macro backdrop tightened. Dogecoin bucked the trend with gains, pointing to selective capital rotation toward meme-coin exposure even as larger-cap assets came under pressure.
The macro environment has deteriorated since late 2025. Markets have repriced the path of rate cuts as US inflation data re-accelerated and labor markets remained resilient, pushing bond yields higher and strengthening the dollar. Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows slowed materially through November and December after a strong first half of the year, removing a key marginal bid that had supported prices earlier in 2025.
Elevated oil prices are compounding the pressure. Crude's rise adds to inflationary headwinds, reducing the likelihood of near-term monetary easing and further tightening financial conditions for risk assets. Gold has held its safe-haven bid, with Middle East tensions underpinning demand even as the metal corrects from record highs.
The key levels to watch are $82,000 to the upside, which aligns with a yearly level and offer block, and $60,200 to the downside. A break and acceptance above $82,000 would open the door toward the $100,000 area, while a sustained move below $60,000 would suggest continuation toward $40,000.
For Bitcoin to reclaim its bull-market status, the analyst said, it needs to bounce decisively from current levels. Until then, the market remains in a defensive posture, with capital rotating toward safer corners of the crypto complex and meme coins serving as the primary outlet for speculative risk.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
