Key Takeaways:
Physical demand drove 55% of the rally; SPDR Gold Shares drew $8.3 billion in inflows.
Gold December futures approached $4,400 per ounce after July payrolls missed by 106,000 jobs, lifting SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (NYSEARCA:GLDM) 3.32% over two weeks to $81.33.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the US economy shed 23,000 jobs in July against a Wall Street consensus forecast of 83,000 additions, the largest expectation gap in recent history. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2%, but labour force participation dropped to 61.4%, a five-year low, meaning the improvement came from discouraged workers leaving the workforce rather than stronger hiring.
The Federal Open Market Committee held rates at 3.5%-3.75% on July 29 in a 9-3 vote, with regional presidents Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan dissenting for a hike. May and June payrolls were revised down by a combined 103,000 positions, confirming a structural deceleration rather than a one-month anomaly.
Gold remains well below its record. GLDM's 52-week high is $109.74, leaving the ETF roughly 26% below its peak. The September FOMC meeting is the next event to watch, with markets now pricing a rate cut as a live possibility after the weak employment data undermined the hawkish argument that the labour market could sustain restrictive policy.
Physical demand drove 55% of the rally
Approximately 55% of the gold price movement was attributable to physical demand channels, with the remaining 45% from paper positioning including ETF inflows and futures activity. SPDR Gold Shares recorded net inflows of $8.3 billion in the weeks surrounding the event, while the GDX gold miners ETF attracted $2.1 billion in institutional allocations.
Central banks continue to provide a structural floor. Global central bank gold purchases have averaged approximately 1,000 tonnes per year over the four years preceding 2026, according to the World Gold Council. The WGC's 2026 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey, covering 76 respondents, found that 89% expected global gold reserves to continue increasing.
Silver and the gold-silver ratio
Silver reached $65.05 per ounce in the same trading week, and the gold-silver ratio attracted analytical attention from precious metals strategists. GLDM was upgraded to a Buy candidate on July 30, according to StockInvest.us technical analysis, with support at $80.77 and resistance at $83.23.
The weak jobs data also shifted the Fed's dual mandate calculus. With inflation running above the 2% target and the labour market cooling, the committee faces a genuine policy conflict. A divided FOMC is more sensitive to incoming data, meaning each subsequent economic release carries greater weight in shifting the internal balance of the debate. For gold investors, this creates a favourable setup: any further labour market deterioration would strengthen the case for rate cuts, pushing real yields lower and reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
