Hormuz transits near 3-month low as Iran-U.S. deal stalls

Ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell to a five-day average of about 13 on Tuesday, near a three-month low, as Iran's six conditions for reopening the waterway stalled U.S. negotiations.

"Iran's security apparatus has come to a realization that for them the best route is returning back to the MOU," said Mehran Haghirian, director of research and programs at the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation, a London-based think tank. "They want to make sure that they get some of those things up-front, or at least there is a process for them before there is any movement on Hormuz."

Before the war began Feb. 28, 138 vessels typically passed through the strait in a 24-hour period, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations. Kpler data shows the current average of 13 transits per day represents a collapse of more than 90 percent. The U.S. has redirected 55 commercial vessels, disabled two and boarded two since reimposing its naval blockade in July, according to CENTCOM. Iran's demands include lifting sanctions, unfreezing assets, paying war damages, ending attacks on regional allies, withdrawing naval and air forces, and never threatening Iran.

The strait carries roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments in peacetime. Its closure has driven up fuel prices in the United States, a political liability for Trump ahead of the midterm elections. If no deal emerges, analysts see sustained upward pressure on crude prices and shipping insurance costs, with the risk of a broader regional conflict spreading to Yemen's Bab al-Mandab strait.

Six Demands, Zero Movement

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Sunday that an agreement with Oman to define new shipping routes through the strait was in its "final stages," but insisted the waterway would not be fully reopened until Washington meets Tehran's conditions. Those stipulations, issued Saturday by outgoing Supreme National Security Council secretary Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr, include lifting the naval blockade, withdrawing U.S. and Israeli forces from the region, paying war reparations, unfreezing Iranian assets, removing sanctions, and permanently ending attacks on Iran and its allies in Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen and Iraq.

Trump responded by demanding Iran compensate the U.S. for "all of the people that they have killed and gravely wounded with their roadside bombs and many conflicts," as well as for damages to Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Gaza. "I have instructed my representatives to put this firmly into any, and all, future negotiations," Trump wrote on Truth Social.

The tit-for-tat has diminished prospects for a quick deal despite optimism last week that an agreement was near. Rosemary Kelanic, director of the Middle East program at Defense Priorities, called Trump's response "an expression of frustration" rather than a real bargaining position. "Trump's position is weakening, but then, as a result of that, Iran is pushing for more concessions from Trump," she told The Hill. "But more concessions is harder for Trump to give, so he's going to be less willing to give them."

The last time the two sides reached a framework — the Memorandum of Understanding signed June 17 — the cease-fire collapsed within three weeks when Trump declared it "over" at the NATO summit in Turkey on July 8. Days of tit-for-tat strikes followed, and the U.S. reimposed its naval blockade of Iranian ports in the strait.

Houthi Attacks Threaten Second Chokepoint

The impasse over Hormuz is compounded by escalating attacks from Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, who have struck Saudi Arabia's energy infrastructure and threatened to shut down the Bab al-Mandab strait — a vital shipping route that is a gateway to the Red Sea.

The Houthis hit a Saudi Aramco oil refinery in the port city of Jizan with a drone, and targeted the Mocha port along the Red Sea, killing soldiers and civilians. The Saudi Energy Ministry said the fire at the refinery was extinguished and nobody was injured. The U.N. warns the strikes over the past few weeks threaten to restart the nearly decade-long war between the Houthis and a Saudi-backed coalition that has been in a tentative cease-fire for four years.

"The Houthis here are assuming that nobody is ready for ground operations and nobody wants to escalate to full-scale war," said Mohammed Al-Basha, founder of the U.S.-based risk advisory Basha Report. "They're sending a signal to the U.S., they're sending a signal to the international community that they could close the Bab al-Mandab Strait."

Vice President Vance told Fox News on Saturday that the two sides are working on setting up a traffic lane in the strait so ships can pass safely, but warned the war is still "in the middle of the game." A senior U.S. official told PBS News Hour the administration considers the current impasse "a step in the process" rather than a setback.

For Trump, the stakes are immediate. The strait's closure has pushed up fuel and goods prices in the United States, a political liability ahead of the midterm elections. "It's going to be very difficult for him to claim any kind of a victory if, after all of this, the strait is reopened, but Iran now has more leverage over the strait," said Jason Campbell, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.