Houthi blockade puts 2.5 million barrels of Saudi oil at risk

Yemen's Houthi rebels declared a maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia Monday, threatening to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to Saudi shipping and cut off one of the last remaining routes for Middle Eastern crude to reach global markets.

The Houthi declaration closes the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to Saudi vessels, threatening 2.5 million barrels a day of crude exports at a time when the Strait of Hormuz is already largely shut, according to Rystad Energy. Brent crude rose 1.1 percent to $90.20 a barrel Monday, while West Texas Intermediate gained 1.1 percent to $84.13.

"The full closure of the BAM would cut global oil supply by 7 percent as it would leave most Saudi oil exports unable to leave the region," analysts at Reuters wrote Monday, citing the compounding effect of the Hormuz blockade that has already removed 10 percent of global supply.

Saudi Arabia has relied on its East-West pipeline, the 750-mile Petroline system connecting Abqaiq to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, to bypass the contested Strait of Hormuz. The kingdom exported roughly 4.5 million barrels a day from Yanbu, most of it heading south through the Bab el-Mandeb. Jorge León, senior vice president at Rystad Energy, said the Houthi threat puts approximately 2.5 million barrels a day of Saudi oil at risk "at a time when traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is at a standstill."

"With the Gulf's primary maritime outlet largely closed, the market is increasingly dependent on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and Red Sea terminals to maintain export flows," León said in a research note Monday. "Any disruption at Bab el-Mandeb would therefore threaten not only Saudi shipments but one of the few remaining routes capable of compensating for the severe reduction in Hormuz traffic."

The Houthis previously waged a campaign against Red Sea shipping from November 2023 through September 2025, forcing vessels to avoid the Suez Canal and boosting shipping costs by nearly $200 billion. That campaign ended without a formal ceasefire, and the group has not attacked merchant vessels since last September, according to EUNAVFOR ASPIDES commander Rear Admiral Vasileios Gryparis.

"The security situation in the Bab el-Mandeb remains fragile and is highly sensitive to regional escalation," Gryparis told The War Zone. "From an operational standpoint, we assess that the Houthis pose a threat and are capable of rapidly escalating."

The blockade comes as the broader U.S.-Iran conflict enters its 10th day of continuous strikes. U.S. Central Command said it concluded another round of strikes on Iranian military targets at 9 p.m. ET Monday, targeting command centers, maritime capabilities, and missile launch sites. The Pentagon has confirmed at least three U.S. service members killed and nearly 100 wounded since early July, with the airfield at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan taking the brunt of Iranian barrages.

Iran struck Kuwaiti power generation and water desalination plants Monday, causing fires at multiple facilities, while Bahrain reported intercepting a new wave of Iranian attacks. Two oil tankers — the Liberia-flagged Acheloos and the Malta-flagged Kavomaleas — were hit by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, according to ship manager Dynacom Tankers Management.

Diplomatic efforts have not collapsed entirely. Qatari mediators have proposed a 10-day ceasefire to revive elements of the memorandum of understanding signed in June, though Iran's leadership has cast doubt on the prospect. Iran's foreign ministry confirmed indirect communications with Washington remain active through third-party mediators.

"If a ceasefire does not materialize and Hormuz remains largely closed while the Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping intensifies, the risk of a significant rebound in oil prices would be substantial," León said.

The last time both chokepoints faced simultaneous disruption was during the 2023-2025 Houthi campaign, when Brent crude briefly touched $100 a barrel and global shipping costs surged. With U.S. munition stockpiles under strain and the Pentagon warning of constraints on its ability to surge forces, the capacity to manage a two-front maritime conflict remains an open question.

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