Samsung HBM prices may double in 2027, Goldman Sachs expert call says

Goldman Sachs' Korea storage expert sees traditional DRAM prices rising by a "double-digit percentage" in the third and fourth quarters, with HBM pricing potentially doubling in 2027 as supply constraints tighten across the memory market.

"Over half of server DRAM is now covered by long-term agreements with take-or-pay clauses, giving suppliers unprecedented pricing power," the expert, whose name was not disclosed in the call summary, said.

Goldman Sachs forecasts Samsung Electronics' HBM prices will rise 87% year over year in 2027, well above the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 52%. The bank maintained its buy rating on Samsung with a 12-month target of 480,000 won for common shares and 360,000 won for preferred shares.

The pricing outlook implies a structural shift in memory industry economics. Long-term contracts now lock in more than half of server DRAM revenue, reducing the cyclical volatility that has historically punished memory stocks. If HBM prices double, Samsung's memory division — competing directly with SK Hynix and Micron Technology for Nvidia's HBM supply contracts — could see earnings revisions that current consensus has not yet priced in.

The supply-demand dynamics driving the forecast are structural rather than cyclical, the expert said. Capacity expansion is running above historical rates, but effective bit growth — the actual increase in memory output — is below historical averages because HBM production consumes more wafer capacity per unit than traditional DRAM. Every HBM module requires a larger share of DRAM wafer output, diverting supply away from the conventional market. This dynamic creates a self-reinforcing price floor: as more wafer capacity shifts to HBM, traditional DRAM supply tightens further, supporting the double-digit price increases the expert forecasts through year-end.

Chinese competitors remain a limited threat

Chinese memory manufacturers are expanding capacity, but the expert assessed their near-term competitive risk as low. Production yields and technology levels still trail industry leaders by a meaningful margin, meaning expanded capacity does not translate into equivalent effective supply. The technology gap in high-bandwidth memory is particularly wide, as HBM requires advanced stacking and packaging techniques — including through-silicon vias and microbump interconnects — that Chinese foundries have not yet mastered. For Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron, this means the current pricing power is unlikely to be challenged by new entrants in the short to medium term.

On the technology roadmap, hybrid bonding — an advanced chip-stacking method that eliminates the need for through-silicon vias, enabling higher stack counts and better thermal performance — is not expected to see early mass adoption. The expert said achieving sufficient yields at production scale will require "considerable time and effort." Memory makers are exploring alternatives including fluxless bonding while gradually advancing hybrid bonding development. The cautious timeline suggests that current HBM production methods using microbump technology will remain dominant through at least 2027, preserving the cost structures that underpin current pricing forecasts.

Investment implications

Samsung Electronics trades as a play on the memory cycle, and the expert call suggests the current upcycle has further to run. Goldman's 480,000 won target implies roughly 30% upside from recent levels, contingent on HBM pricing delivering the forecast gains. The bank identified three key risks: a sharp deterioration in memory supply-demand balance, a contraction in smartphone margins, and loss of market share in mobile OLED displays. For investors, the key variable to watch is whether HBM pricing momentum accelerates beyond the 52% consensus — if Goldman's 87% forecast proves correct, Samsung could emerge as the primary beneficiary among memory stocks.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.