Key Takeaways:
SpaceX has shed roughly $1 trillion in market value since its post-IPO peak five weeks ago, and the worst may be yet to come.
SPCX closed at $115.26 on July 22, down 25 percent in a single month and 49 percent from its June 16 peak of $225.64, erasing nearly $1 trillion in paper wealth since the company's record-breaking IPO.
"The combination of incoming supply, bearish options skew, and eroding sentiment does not set up well for a near-term bounce," said Gerelyn Terzo, an analyst covering SpaceX for 24/7 Wall Street.
The stock fell for seven straight sessions through July 20, sliding 21 percent in that stretch. Hedgeye estimates the company has been losing roughly $47 billion in market capitalization per day from its peak — almost 22 times the rate of Rivian Automotive's post-IPO decline. Short sellers now control 206 million shares, or 32 percent of the tradable float, according to S3 Partners, representing roughly $25 billion in bearish bets.
The real test comes Aug. 4, when SpaceX reports its first earnings as a public company. Two trading days later, 911.5 million insider shares become eligible for sale — a supply event that exceeds the entire IPO float. Options traders are already positioned for further declines, with the March 2027 put/call ratio sitting at 16.13.
The Lockup Math Is Brutal
SpaceX deliberately staggered its insider lockup expirations across multiple dates, but the first wave is still massive. The 911.5 million shares set free on Aug. 6 dwarf the roughly 635 million shares that traded in the IPO. A second tranche of 455.8 million shares carries a condition: SPCX must close above $175.50 on five of the 10 trading days before the earnings report — a level nearly 40 percent above the current price.
Every insider on the roster, from Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk to President Gwynne Shotwell to Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen, last transacted on June 11, the IPO date. Musk's own 42 percent stake remains locked until June 2027.
The Bull Case Has Cracks
SpaceX still launches more than 80 percent of the world's payload mass to orbit each year and operates roughly 9,600 Starlink satellites across 164 countries. Revenue grew 33 percent in 2025. But growth is slowing — the first quarter of 2026 saw that rate fall to 15 percent — and the company posted a $4.9 billion net loss last year on $18.7 billion in revenue.
The competitive moat is also taking water. Japan successfully landed a reusable rocket prototype, cracking the narrative that SpaceX's lead was years ahead of any rival. Reddit sentiment on the stock collapsed to a Very Bearish score of 12 after the news.
Even after the selloff, SPCX trades at 49 times expected revenue, down from roughly 140 times in its first trading days but still well above Morningstar's pre-IPO fair value estimate of $780 billion for the entire company. Analyst price targets span from $62 to $800 — a $738 gap that reflects deep disagreement on what the company is worth.
What Comes Next
Investors will watch the Aug. 4 earnings print, but the numbers may matter less than the wave of newly tradable shares hitting a market that just absorbed a 9.22 percent weekly drop on a constrained float. Short sellers are sitting on an estimated $8.7 billion in paper profits as of mid-July, according to S3 Partners, giving them little incentive to cover before the unlock.
Polymarket assigned a 96.5 percent probability to SPCX finishing down on July 22, which it did, and only a 20 percent chance of closing above $130 by month-end. The options market is pricing further pain through at least March 2027.
A reversal would require either insiders to publicly extend their lockups or a decisive commercial breakthrough from Starship before the earnings report. Without one of those catalysts, the supply wave arriving Aug. 6 looks set to push the stock lower.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
