Trump hints at Iran talks restart as Brent holds above $91

Trump's conditional offer to restart Iran negotiations — "maybe at some point" — did little to ease oil market anxiety, with Brent crude holding above $91 a barrel as Strait of Hormuz disruptions persist.

"Sentiment remained supported by President Trump's decision not to extend the US-Iran peace agreement and continued security concerns in the Strait of Hormuz," ING analysts wrote in a note.

Brent futures gained 35 cents, or 0.39 percent, to $91.22 a barrel, while WTI rose 81 cents, or 0.96 percent, to $85.31. Both benchmarks were heading for a third straight daily increase, with Brent touching its highest level since July 30 and WTI reaching its strongest since July 31. A projectile struck a vessel leaving the strait on Tuesday, the latest in a series of attacks that have kept daily crossings in single digits despite a modest improvement from weekend levels.

The diplomatic deadlock carries direct consequences for global energy supply. A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday that Tehran would adopt a "fully offensive" military posture as attempts to secure a permanent end to the war remained stalled, while Washington has ruled out extending the temporary ceasefire. "The lack of any kind of deal will have an impact on oil price expectations further out in 4Q and even in 2027," said Suvro Sarkar, head of energy research at DBS Bank.

The conflict, launched by the United States and Israel with attacks on Iran on February 28, has already reshaped tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway that carries roughly a fifth of global oil consumption. Saudi Aramco has resumed loadings from inside the strait and is offering cargoes that can be loaded through ship-to-ship transfers off Fujairah in the UAE, providing an alternative mechanism for moving some supplies. Yet the number of crossings remains in single digits, a fraction of normal traffic levels.

Strait of Hormuz Security Risks Keep Supply Concerns Elevated

Security conditions in the strait remain the dominant variable for crude pricing. The projectile strike on Tuesday marks the latest in a series of attacks that have kept the number of crossings in single digits, despite a modest improvement from weekend levels, according to tracking data. The disruption has raised concerns over the reliability of crude exports through the strategically important waterway.

The possibility of a more severe interruption remains an important risk for crude markets, particularly if tensions between Iran and the United States intensify further. Trump's vague timeline for potential talks — "maybe at some point" — offers no concrete path to de-escalation, and Washington's decision to rule out extending the temporary ceasefire suggests the conflict could persist for months. The last time Brent traded at these levels was in late July, before the current escalation pushed prices higher. The pattern of attacks on vessels in the strait, combined with Iran's stated "fully offensive" posture, points to a prolonged period of elevated supply risk.

Market Pricing Extends Beyond Near-Term

The increasingly uncertain diplomatic outlook is beginning to influence longer-term expectations for the oil market. "The lack of any kind of deal will have an impact on oil price expectations further out in 4Q and even in 2027," Sarkar said. This suggests that traders are not treating the current elevated prices as a temporary spike but as a structural repricing of supply risk.

For energy investors, the key question is whether Trump's conditional openness translates into actual negotiations. If talks resume, crude prices could face downward pressure as the market prices in restored supply flows through the strait. If the deadlock persists, Brent could test levels not seen since the conflict's early days, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining the critical chokepoint to watch. The next signal will come from whether Washington extends or abandons the temporary ceasefire framework, and whether Tehran responds to Trump's overture with any concrete diplomatic gesture. The market's reaction on Tuesday — a third consecutive session of gains — suggests traders are pricing in continued disruption rather than a near-term resolution.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.