Trump's Iran strikes keep Strait of Hormuz shut, oil near $90

President Trump said he has lost confidence in Iran because its leaders lie, pledging continued strikes as the Strait of Hormuz stays shut and crude heads for a 20 percent monthly gain.

"Iran's leaders have never engaged in serious negotiations, so the only language they understand is force," Senator Tom Cotton, the Arkansas Republican who chairs the Senate Intelligence Committee, said, backing sustained airstrikes and a naval blockade.

The US has struck more than 80 Iranian military targets since July 7, and Iran's army claimed it hit the US airbase at Ahmed Al-Jaber in Kuwait with drones. Kpler data shows only two tankers crossed the strait versus 25 commercial freight ships through the Bab el-Mandeb, where a Saudi-led coalition of 14 nations has formed a defensive maritime alliance.

The strait handles about 21 percent of global oil trade, so a prolonged closure would push crude further toward $90 a barrel, feed inflation expectations and keep central banks from cutting rates — a scenario that has already wiped roughly $80 billion from crypto market capitalization.

The escalation has spread well beyond the waterway. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed it targeted two oil tankers attempting to transit under US air escort, while Kuwait said it destroyed drones that entered its airspace, calling the incident a "flagrant violation" of its sovereignty. Saudi Arabia joined US forces in striking Iran-backed groups in Iraq after attacks on its oil facilities, and Egypt came under a drone attack targeting two gas vessels at its Mediterranean port of Damietta, the first strike on the country since the conflict began.

Washington has answered with sanctions. The Treasury imposed fresh measures on six entities in China, India, Russia and Iran for supporting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Mahan Air, which it alleges transports IRGC personnel, weapons and drone systems. The State Department said it remains committed to disrupting illicit financing streams that fund the regime's armed forces.

Strait of Hormuz closure tightens the oil risk premium

Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority said transit remains suspended because of what it called the "aggressive actions" of US forces, with shipping permits to be issued gradually once stability and calm are restored. The closure marks a sharp reversal from the maximum-pressure era, when Iran's oil exports had already fallen from 2.5 million barrels per day in April 2018 to 300,000 barrels per day — an 88 percent reduction that denied the regime an estimated $50 billion in revenue.

Cross-asset fallout spreads to crypto and equities

The conflict has cost 19 US service members and one contractor their lives, including six killed in a drone strike on March 1. Rising oil prices feed inflation expectations, making central banks less likely to cut rates — conditions that wiped roughly $80 billion from total crypto market capitalization by mid-July, with Bitcoin and Ethereum absorbing the heaviest blows. A blockade scenario would push oil sharply higher and drag risk assets down further, while the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control has sanctioned crypto addresses tied to Iranian actors before, raising compliance burdens for exchanges and DeFi protocols.

Diplomacy has not collapsed entirely. Pakistan, which has close ties to both Washington and Tehran, insisted negotiations are ongoing, particularly over the Strait of Hormuz, even as India urged Iran to avoid attacks on commercial shipping. Egypt will host a multi-nation meeting on Gaza's future, where a US-brokered deal calls for Hamas to disarm completely and Israel to withdraw gradually.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.