Bitcoin steadies near $63,000 as CPI matches forecasts, Fed cut intact

July CPI landed exactly in line with forecasts, keeping Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations intact and Bitcoin's macro tailwind alive.

Bitcoin held near $63,000 on Wednesday as July US inflation matched consensus, keeping Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations intact.

Headline CPI rose 0.1% month over month and 3.4% year over year, while core inflation advanced 0.2% monthly and 2.5% annually, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The in-line print removes the immediate risk of an upside surprise, leaving traders focused on the Fed's next policy decision. Bitcoin traded at $63,497.90 as of 01:00 UTC, down 0.6% over 24 hours and holding within the $62,000-$66,000 band it has occupied for several weeks, CoinGecko data shows. Spot ETF inflows added $850 million last week, offsetting sales from miners and corporate holders. Ether rose 0.4% to $1,882.06, while Solana slipped 0.3% to $76.10, with total crypto market value at $2.26 trillion.

An easier monetary stance typically benefits risk assets by increasing liquidity and lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Traders have positioned for a move toward $70,000, buying December strangles on Bitcoin and Solana ahead of the volatility. The Fed's next policy decision, due in September, will determine whether the easing path holds.

ETF inflows offset miner and corporate selling

Bitcoin's tight range reflects a standoff between persistent ETF buying and supply from miners and corporate treasuries. US spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed $850 million last week, while crypto trading volume fell to a three-year low, keeping volatility muted. BlackRock lowered the minimum in-kind conversion threshold for its iShares Bitcoin Trust from $25 million to $1 million, giving smaller holders direct ETF access without liquidating. The change preserves the tax-deferral benefits of the fund's grantor trust structure while expanding access to retail-sized positions. The dynamic has left the market directionless, with ETF buying effectively neutralized by bitcoin treasury sales.

Fed decision looms as next catalyst

The CPI print keeps the door open for a September rate cut, with fed funds futures reflecting easing expectations. Bitcoin's next test is the $66,000 resistance, with support at $62,000. A break above the upper band could open a path toward $70,000, the level traders have flagged as the near-term target. Inflation has stayed above the Fed's 2 percent target for five consecutive years, and central bankers have suggested the possibility of further rate increases, keeping the September decision finely balanced. A dovish outcome would reinforce the case for higher crypto valuations, while a hawkish surprise could push Bitcoin back toward the lower end of its range.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.