Societe Generale says gold's rally has broadened into synchronized buying across physical, futures and options markets, with August central bank data the next test of the bull run.
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Gold's bull run awaits central bank data after 201-tonne ETF month
August gold ETF inflows of 201 tonnes, the third-largest on record, show the 2026 rally has broadened across physical, futures and options markets, Societe Generale said.
"What began as a geopolitical shock evolved over the following months into something far more durable: a synchronised build-up of physical, futures, and options exposure that now spans retail investors, professional money managers, and derivatives traders alike," Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem, analysts at Societe Generale, said.
Money managers' net futures positioning reached the second-largest long exposure on record in notional terms, behind only January 2026, when gold broke through $5,400 an ounce to an all-time high. That peak came with prices roughly $1,000 an ounce higher than today, making the scale of dollar exposure more striking, the bank said. August inflows surpassed those of March 2022 after Russia's invasion of Ukraine and September 2012 after the Federal Reserve announced QE3.
The durability of the rally now hinges on official-sector demand. "We are now awaiting August central bank data to confirm whether official-sector demand, a key structural pillar of this bull market, remains as robust as in prior months," the analysts said. Any acceleration or slowdown in central-bank buying could help show how durable the bull run might be.
Central banks added 1,136 tonnes in 2022 — August data is the next signal
Gold traded near $4,425 an ounce early Tuesday, snapping a two-day losing streak after finding buyers below $4,400, as a weaker dollar offset hawkish Federal Reserve bets. The metal fell more than 0.9 percent last Friday to $4,429.98 an ounce for a weekly loss after stronger-than-expected US jobs data boosted expectations the Fed could raise rates as soon as this month, according to UOB Group.
US nonfarm payrolls climbed by 162,000 in August, versus an upwardly revised rise of 21,000 prior and above the consensus of 56,000, while the unemployment rate held at 4.1 percent. Traders price a 60 percent chance of a rate hike at the Fed's September 16 meeting, up from 50 percent before the jobs report, per the CME FedWatch tool.
Central banks are the biggest holders of gold, adding 1,136 tonnes worth about $70 billion to reserves in 2022, the highest yearly purchase since records began, according to World Gold Council data. Emerging-economy central banks from China, India and Turkey have led the accumulation. The August official-sector figures, due in coming weeks, will show whether that structural support persists.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
