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James Okafor
Economics & Policy Reporter

Central banks, rates, and the macro data that moves markets. Spent five years at the Financial Times covering the Fed and Treasury before joining Edgen.

Latest

US retail sales fell 0.6 percent in July, the steepest monthly decline in over a year, missing forecasts and raising concerns about consumer spending momentum.

US retail sales fall 0.6%, largest monthly drop in a year

**US consumer spending cooled in July as retail sales posted their steepest monthly drop in over a year, clouding the second-half outlook.**

US July retail sales data due Friday is expected to rise 0.3 percent, testing consumer resilience after a weak jobs report and flat producer prices.

US July retail sales seen up 0.3% as rate-hike bets fade

A scheduled release that could settle whether the US consumer is holding up after a weak jobs report.

The eurozone swung to a €1.8 billion seasonally adjusted goods trade surplus in June from a €6.1 billion deficit in May as energy import costs cooled.

Eurozone swings to €1.8 billion trade surplus as energy costs cool

**Key Takeaways:** - Eurozone swung to a €1.8 billion seasonally adjusted goods surplus in June from a €6.1 billion deficit in May. - Unadjusted surplus reached €8.6 billion, up from €4.8 billion a year earlier, as exports rose 14.4 percent. - The trade swing helped the eurozone grow faster than the U.S. in the second quarter.

EUR/USD held steady as cooling US CPI and PPI data cut the market-implied probability of a September Fed rate hike to 34.8 percent.

EUR/USD Steadies as Cooling Inflation Cuts Fed Hike Odds to 35%

**Key Takeaways:** Back-to-back US inflation reports showing cooling price pressures cut the market-implied probability of a September Fed rate hike to 34.8 percent, leaving EUR/USD rangebound.

GBP/USD trades near $1.3498 as softer US inflation and producer prices reduce expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike.

GBP/USD Eyes $1.35 as Softer US Data Fades Fed Hike Bets

**GBP/USD is pressing toward $1.35 as softer US inflation and producer prices reduce the odds of another Federal Reserve rate hike in September.**

Japan's July wholesale inflation at 7.2 percent locks in a Bank of Japan September rate hike to 1.25 percent even as SME bankruptcies hit a 12-year high.

BOJ September Hike to 1.25% Sealed as Japan's Two-Speed Economy Deepens

**Japan's two-speed economy deepens as the BOJ locks in a September hike to 1.25 percent while SME bankruptcies hit a 12-year high.**

Real bond yields across major economies hit decade highs as AI companies and governments ramp up bond sales, raising risks for stock markets and global growth.

AI bond flood pushes real yields to decade highs, threatening stocks

**Key Takeaways:** - U.S. 30-year real yields near 18-year highs at about 3 percent - AI giants issued $220 billion of bonds this year, double 2025's total - Rising real rates threaten record equity rally and 1.5%-2% growth

Japan's former top currency diplomat warns yen intervention could recur at any time as BOJ September hike odds jump to 76 percent.

Yen intervention risk rises as BOJ hike odds jump to 76%

**Japan's former top currency diplomat says intervention could come at any yen level, as the BOJ's rate path becomes the real lever.**

Norges Bank held its policy rate at 4.25 percent and softened its forward guidance on future hikes after underlying inflation fell below forecasts.

Norges Bank Holds at 4.25% as Softened Guidance Shifts September Odds

**Norges Bank held rates at 4.25% but softened its hike signal, making September's decision hinge on a measurement quirk in August inflation data.**

US initial jobless claims rose 9,000 to 209,000 in the week through Aug. 8, exceeding consensus, as the labor market shows signs of cooling.

US jobless claims hit 209,000 as three-week climb tests labor resilience

**Key Takeaways:** Initial jobless claims rose 9,000 to 209,000 in the week through Aug. 8, the third consecutive weekly increase, though the four-week average held steady at 199,000.

The S&P 500 has climbed 13% this year to records even as U.S. payrolls shrank in July, defining a jobless boom where earnings outpace GDP growth.

Jobless Boom Widens as Stocks Rally 13% While Payrolls Shrink

**Key Takeaways:** - S&P 500 up 13% this year to records while U.S. payrolls shrank in July, the fifth contraction in 12 months - Q2 earnings excluding Amazon and Alphabet rose 32%, with median S&P 500 earnings growth accelerating to 13% from 8% two years ago - Fed faces 40% implied probability of a September rate hike after July CPI matched forecasts at 3.4% annually

United Wholesale Mortgage required a $2 billion capital infusion after a failed interest-rate hedge, exposing rising FHA delinquency rates and taxpayer risk in non-bank mortgage lending.

UWM's $2B rescue exposes FHA taxpayer risk as delinquencies hit 21.5%

**UWM's $2 billion rescue after a failed rate hedge exposes how non-bank lenders shift mortgage risk onto taxpayer-backed FHA guarantees.**

Bond investors split over Kevin Warsh's Fed as short-dated yields price a rate hike while long-dated yields question the chairman's credibility with core inflation at 3.3 percent.

Warsh's Fed Faces Credibility Test as Bond Market Prices 2 Hikes

The bond market's split verdict on Kevin Warsh's Federal Reserve — short-dated yields pricing hikes, long-dated yields questioning his resolve — is testing whether the new chairman's communication shift can survive an inflation overshoot.

Thirty-year TIPS real yields top 3 percent, the highest since 2008, as investors weigh inflation protection against long-duration risk.

TIPS Real Yields Top 3% as Inflation Protection Goes on Sale

Thirty-year TIPS real yields above 3 percent give investors the richest inflation protection in nearly two decades — but long-duration risk cuts both ways.

The US Treasury used euros rather than dollars to support the yen, signaling the dollar's eroding reserve status as Japan's $75.6 billion reserve drawdown pressures Treasury markets.

Dollar's Reserve Status Cracks as $75.6B Yen Support Shifts Tactics

**Key Takeaways:** - The US Treasury used euros rather than dollars to support the yen, a break from convention that blindsided the ECB. - Japan's reserves fell $75.6 billion in May as it sold Treasuries, pressuring Washington's bond market. - Renewed calls for a Fort Knox gold audit follow Sen. Rand Paul's tour of the vault.

The Federal Reserve will pause reserve management purchases of US Treasury bills through September 14 while continuing about $17 billion in reinvestment buying, signaling bank reserves are adequate.

Fed Pauses T-Bill Reserve Purchases Through September 14 on Ample Reserves

**The Federal Reserve will skip reserve management purchases of Treasury bills through September 14, a sign it considers bank reserves adequate as it continues shrinking its balance sheet.**

Japan's government supports an early Bank of Japan rate hike, with September or October as leading candidates, pushing the yen to 159.18 per dollar.

Japan backs BOJ rate hike as September odds hit 74%

**Japan's government backs an early BOJ rate increase, with traders pricing a 74 percent chance of a move at the Sept. 18 meeting.**

GBP/USD rises as soft US inflation data reduces expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September.

GBP/USD climbs 0.06% as soft US inflation cools Fed hike bets

Soft US inflation on both consumer and producer sides has pushed money markets to price a 60 percent chance the Fed holds rates in September.

Federal Reserve officials publicly split on the September rate path as Richmond's Barkin backs a hold and Cleveland's Hammack presses for a hike.

Fed Officials Split on September as Hike Odds Climb to 36%

**Key Takeaways:** Federal Reserve officials publicly split on the September rate path Thursday, with Richmond's Thomas Barkin backing a hold and Cleveland's Beth Hammack pressing for a hike, leaving markets to price a 36 percent chance of a 25-basis-point increase.

US producer prices were unchanged in July, missing the 0.2 percent consensus, as falling energy costs offset services gains and strengthened the case for a Federal Reserve pause in September.

US July PPI flat at 0.0%, strengthening Fed pause case

**US producer prices were unchanged in July, a cooler-than-expected reading that strengthens the case for a Fed pause in September.**

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