Bitcoin nears BIP-110 chain split as miner support stays at 2.45%

Bitcoin sits 343 blocks from BIP-110's mandatory signaling phase at block 961,632, with miner support at just 2.45 percent. The bip110.org/monitor dashboard showed 41 supporting blocks among 1,674 counted in the current period as of Thursday morning, with the mandatory window projected to begin Aug. 8 at approximately 5:16 p.m. EDT.

"Every morning I wake up, open the X app, search for 'BIP-110,' and block a few people with the term in their names before breakfast," Chun Wang, co-founder of mining pool F2pool, said on X this week. Wang's pool is among the largest operators — Foundry, Antpool, F2pool and Viabtc have all refused to signal for the proposal.

BIP-110 sets a 55 percent miner signaling threshold — far below the roughly 95 percent level associated with several earlier Bitcoin upgrades. It also tells enforcing nodes to reject nonsignaling blocks after block 961,632, even if those blocks carry nearly all of the network's computing power. The proposal, formally named the Reduced Data Temporary Softfork, would clamp down on Bitcoin's data rules for about one year, limiting the size of certain data elements inserted into transactions, including tools used by Ordinals inscriptions and several token protocols. It is distributed mainly through Bitcoin Knots, an alternative implementation of Bitcoin's node software; Bitcoin Core, which runs across much of the network, has not adopted it.

At block 961,632, BIP-110 nodes are scheduled to reject nonsignaling blocks, potentially creating two competing transaction histories. Block 963,648 marks the final possible lock-in point under the proposal's mandatory route, while full data limits could activate at block 965,664 — roughly one year of restrictions on large data elements in transactions.

A minority chain and the 2017 precedent

That enforcement setup can produce two competing transaction histories. Most miners and Bitcoin Core users are expected to remain with existing rules, while BIP-110 nodes could peel away onto a smaller chain built exclusively from supporting blocks. With support near 2.5 percent, that minority chain could crawl at first, producing blocks far slower than Bitcoin's normal rhythm of roughly one every 10 minutes. Mining difficulty would eventually reset, but before that adjustment, confirmations could take hours.

Bitcoin holders could technically own coins on both chains because each side would share the same history before the split. But a forked coin still needs functioning wallets, committed miners, exchange listings, custody support and willing buyers before it becomes anything beyond copied ledger entries.

The 2017 fork cycle offers a cautionary precedent. Bitcoin Cash separated from Bitcoin on Aug. 1, 2017, at block 478,558, and quickly secured miners, exchange listings and liquid trading. Bitcoin Gold followed in October, while Bitcoin Diamond, Super Bitcoin and dozens of thinner copycats appeared in the following months. More than four dozen projects claimed links to Bitcoin's transaction history during the 2017 and early 2018 fork frenzy; most vanished when developers left or trading dried up.

Exchanges stay quiet, institutions hold firm

Major centralized exchanges have issued almost no public guidance on BIP-110, and none have committed to listing a separate token. That silence contrasts sharply with 2017, when platforms halted deposits and withdrawals, prepared fresh trading pairs and walked customers through claiming duplicated coins.

A small handful of infrastructure providers have announced contingency plans. Australian bitcoin-only exchange Hardblock said it may temporarily pause buying, selling, deposits and withdrawals while monitoring the network. Bitaroo, another Australian exchange, plans to freeze deposits and withdrawals until the dust settles. Amboss, the Lightning Network tooling provider, flagged early August as a live fork danger zone.

Bitcoin's ownership structure is now dramatically different from 2017. A large quantity of bitcoin sits inside exchange-traded funds, corporate balance sheets and institutional custody platforms. Blackrock's spot bitcoin ETF and Strategy's corporate treasury embody a holder class that barely existed during the original fork mania. Strategy founder Michael Saylor has publicly rejected BIP-110 and told supporters to "stand down."

Unless miner support changes sharply before block 961,632, the checkpoint is more likely to launch a tiny Bitcoin side experiment than a credible battle for control of the network. For ordinary holders using BTC or leaving funds with major exchanges, no action is presently required — but anyone chasing coins on a minority chain would face replay hazards, unstable wallets, poor infrastructure and possible private-key exposure.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.