Key Takeaways:
Trump's pledge to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within days is compressing the crude risk premium and lifting risk assets, with Bitcoin holding above $64,000.
Bitcoin rose 2% above $64,000 as Trump said the Strait of Hormuz could reopen by Wednesday, easing geopolitical risk and dragging oil below $75.
"The Strait is going to be open very soon — or they're gonna hit very hard, and then the Strait is going to be open," Trump told Fox News, warning Iran could face a massive attack if it backs out again.
The US, Iran and Oman are closing in on a 60-day interim agreement that would suspend tolls and transit fees while both sides clear naval mines from the waterway within 30 days, according to regional officials. Brent crude slipped 1.2% to $78.43 a barrel early Wednesday, extending a third straight session of declines that have cut prices more than 13% over the past week. Bitcoin's intraday range spanned $63,397 to $64,467, with trading volume down 15% as investors awaited US labor data.
A reopening would remove a choke point that once carried a fifth of the world's oil and natural gas, easing inflation pressure that has kept the Federal Reserve on a hawkish path. Market analyst BIT said Bitcoin could rally if option skew turns less negative and price holds above the $62,000 support level.
The transmission chain is direct: geopolitical de-escalation lowers crude, cooling inflation expectations and reviving risk appetite. Trump said the first phase of negotiations is opening the strait, with denuclearization to follow. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC there is "a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow," while Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed progress but said there is "not finality yet."
The emerging agreement would route ships into the Persian Gulf through an Iranian-controlled lane and out through an Omani-controlled lane, with service fees charged for security and environmental preservation. Trump has rejected tolls, saying "I'm not going to let them charge." Iran has added demands including an end to the US naval blockade and the lifting of sanctions on its oil exports.
Bitcoin's option skew has turned more negative again, indicating downside risks are easing, according to market analyst BIT. The $62,000 level remains the key support, with resistance above at recent highs. Trading volume fell 15% as investors await July non-farm payroll data due Friday, which could shift Federal Reserve rate expectations — a print above 100,000 would strengthen bets on a September hike and potentially pressure risk assets including crypto.
The reopening timeline remains fluid. A US-Iran deal in June collapsed when attacks resumed, and Houthi rebels claimed a fresh missile strike on a Saudi tanker in the Red Sea on Wednesday. Any breakdown in talks would reverse the crude slide and could drag Bitcoin back toward $62,000, while a confirmed agreement would likely extend the risk-on move.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
