Bitcoin stalls below $83K as $14B options expiry nears

Bitcoin traded at $81,257 as of 14:00 EDT Sept. 3, stalled below the $83,000-$86,000 supply zone after an August short squeeze pushed it above $80,000.

Glassnode data shows 68 percent of bitcoin's circulating supply was held at a profit when the price returned to $78,000 in late August, up from 65 percent in May, expanding the pool of holders who may sell into strength.

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs absorbed $3.04 billion in inflows over a nine-day stretch, averaging $338 million per day at the peak of the rally, yet daily secondary-market turnover stayed below $3 billion. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed back to 4.8 percent, reaching new cycle highs just eight trading sessions after falling toward 4.6 percent.

The Sept. 25 quarter-end expiry carries roughly $14 billion in open interest across Deribit and IBIT. Short-liquidation liquidity sits between $83,000 and $86,000, while long-liquidation exposure clusters near $60,000 to $63,000. Unless buyers absorb the supply overhead, bitcoin remains vulnerable to another leg toward the lower end of its range.

Supply Overhead Grows as Holders Sit on Gains

Bitcoin's late-August rebound ran into heavy supply overhead almost immediately. After the Aug. 27 short squeeze cleared a large amount of bearish leverage, the price slipped toward $76,000, triggering a fresh wave of long liquidations before recovering to the current $81,000 zone. The asset tapped an intraday high of $81,364 on the Bitstamp five-minute candle at 12:00 EDT before easing.

The short-term holder cost basis has drifted to roughly $71,000, meaning more investors who accumulated during the summer now sit on unrealized gains at the same nominal price. A dense accumulation zone between $62,000 and $65,000 provides the strongest nearby support, while long-term holder supply between $83,000 and $86,000 remains the primary barrier to further upside. Until one side breaks, bitcoin is effectively trading inside that range.

Options Expiry and Yields Set the Next Test

Higher Treasury yields tend to pressure risk assets by raising discount rates and reducing the appeal of speculative exposure. The 10-year yield's climb back to 4.8 percent — new cycle highs just eight sessions after dipping toward 4.6 percent — has dampened post-squeeze momentum.

Institutional demand has not disappeared but has lacked force. IBIT and other spot products drew $3.04 billion over nine days at the rally's peak, yet secondary-market turnover remained below $3 billion daily, well under levels seen during stronger expansion phases. That gap between primary-market inflows and secondary-market activity suggests institutional accumulation has not yet translated into broad-based spot buying.

The Sept. 25 expiry across Deribit and IBIT could decide whether bitcoin breaks resistance or retests lower support. If buyers absorb the $83,000-$86,000 supply, a renewed short squeeze could push price toward new highs. Failure to clear that zone leaves the market exposed to another move toward the $62,000-$65,000 accumulation area, where the strongest bid sits.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.