XRP faces 65% odds of falling below $1 as ETH gap widens

Polymarket assigns XRP a 65 percent chance of falling below $1 by month-end, with the token at $1.03 as of 06:48 UTC Aug. 10.

CoinGlass data shows XRP's Open Interest has climbed back to $2.5 billion, returning to mid-July levels when bulls failed to hold $1.15 and triggered a liquidity sweep that dropped XRP to $1.03.

The XRP/ETH ratio is down nearly 5 percent this month, extending July's 13 percent-plus drop — the worst monthly loss for the pair this year. Ethereum closed July up over 18 percent while XRP managed just 2.18 percent, putting ETH's monthly return nearly 10x ahead. XRP trades 4.88 percent below its 50-day average of $1.09, with RSI at 39.4.

If bulls fail to defend $1 again, another sharp liquidity sweep could follow, with downside targets at $0.80 and $0.62 in the worst case. The Senate's decision to push the CLARITY Act vote to September removes a potential near-term trigger, with Polymarket odds of the bill passing this year now at 14 percent, down from over 80 percent in February.

On-chain data splits between accumulation and leverage risk

CryptoQuant data shows exchange balances have collapsed to 1.6 billion XRP, roughly half the 3.76 billion tokens parked on trading platforms in October 2025. Wallets moving a million XRP or more account for 55.3 percent of all outflows from Binance, and the exchange supply ratio has slid to 0.03. Sell-side inventory is drying up even as price action stalls.

Yet leverage is building back up. Open Interest at $2.5 billion mirrors mid-July levels, when a failed defense of $1.15 triggered a sweep that pushed XRP to $1.03 while OI fell to $2.36 billion. Forced closures have wiped out roughly $9.6 million, with long positions absorbing most of the damage.

XRP's deflationary tokenomics offer some fundamental support. Over the past 206 days, total supply has dropped from 99,985,726,061 to 99,985,630,555 — 95,506 XRP burned, roughly 463 per day. XRP Ledger's 7-day average active addresses are up 8.1 percent over the past week, averaging 15.2k daily.

Spot XRP ETF flows have swung back to inflows after a period of outflows, though momentum has cooled. May saw roughly $132 million in inflows when the CLARITY Act was still moving through committees; by late July that had shrunk to about $27 million. Cumulative inflows since launch stand at $1.51 billion, though XRP's price decline has eroded those holdings to barely $1 billion in current value. August's escrow unlock added just 300 million net new tokens to circulation, the smallest increase in some time, as most released tokens get re-locked.

The setup leaves XRP caught between accumulation and hesitation. Exchange supply at seven-year lows argues for patience, but rising leverage and a stalled legislative calendar argue for caution. With the Senate not reconvening until Sept. 14, the token's near-term fate rests on Bitcoin's direction and whether bulls can hold $1 through the month.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.