Bernstein analysts predict Robinhood's stock will rise to $160 due to its S&P 500 inclusion and expansion into crypto and tokenized assets, viewing it as a potential financial "super-app."

Bernstein's Robinhood Upgrade

Bernstein has upgraded Robinhood to "outperform" with a price target of $160, citing the company's S&P 500 inclusion and strategic push into crypto and blockchain tokenization.

Crypto Market Share and Tokenization Strategy

Robinhood's crypto market share has significantly increased, reaching approximately 30% following the collapse of FTX and the scaling back of Binance.US. Bernstein views blockchain tokenization as a key growth area for Robinhood, potentially leading to the creation of a liquid market for securities. Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev has described tokenization as "the biggest innovation our industry has seen in the past decade."

Tokenized Assets and Regulatory Landscape

Robinhood has launched tokenized U.S. stocks for European users, offering access to over 200 top U.S. equities. The company also introduced synthetic tokens linked to private companies like OpenAI and SpaceX, though OpenAI has expressed reservations about the unauthorized tokenization of its equity. Bernstein analysts note that tokenizing private equity often lacks key rights and company consent. Robinhood has urged the SEC to establish clear, unified rules for tokenized and traditional assets, advocating for tokens to be recognized as "allowable assets".

Financial Performance and Market Dynamics

Robinhood reported a 232% year-over-year increase in cryptocurrency trading revenue for Q1 2025, reaching $126 million. The platform's crypto assets under custody have increased to $26 billion, with monthly active users climbing to 13.7 million. Despite the bullish outlook from Bernstein, Robinhood's stock experienced a temporary drop of over 6% amid broader crypto market weakness. Robinhood's expansion includes the acquisition of Bitstamp for $200 million, providing institutional trading capabilities, and a $179 million deal for Canadian crypto platform WonderFi.

Regulatory Scrutiny and Payment for Order Flow

A 2025 SEC working paper examined the impact of Payment for Order Flow (PFOF) on cryptocurrency markets, revealing higher fees and reduced transparency compared to equities and options. The study found that the introduction of tokens on Robinhood Crypto led to reduced trading volumes for most crypto assets (excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum), increased bid-ask spreads, and heightened volatility, resulting in an estimated daily cost of $4.8 million to market participants.