Bitcoin Targets Up to $138,000 in October Amid Bullish Technical and On-Chain Signals

The Event in Detail

Bitcoin (BTC) closed September with a 5.35% gain, shaking off a late-month correction and historically setting the stage for what some market observers, like on-chain data resource Lookonchain, term a "Pumptober." This potential upward trajectory is supported by several technical and on-chain analyses.

On the daily chart, Bitcoin exhibits a classic double bottom setup, a bullish reversal pattern. This formation saw two troughs appear near the $113,000 mark, with a neckline resistance established around $117,300. Should bulls decisively push the price above this neckline, the technical target projects roughly $127,500. This projection is derived by measuring the pattern's depth and adding it to the breakout level. Concurrently, Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned higher from neutral territory, signaling a re-emerging bullish momentum.

Furthermore, Bitcoin is trading within a large symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart. This structure, characterized by converging trendlines of lower highs and higher lows, typically precedes a sharp breakout as price compresses towards its apex. The height of this triangle projects a potential target of $137,000.

On-chain data reinforces the bullish sentiment, suggesting the market is not yet "overheated." Key risk levels are identified at $122,000 and $138,000. The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Model, according to Glassnode data, places the average recent buy price at approximately $102,900. This model flags $122,000 as the first significant "heated zone" threshold, and $138,000 as the "overheated zone," which historically has often marked cycle peaks. Low exchange inflows and reduced profit-taking activity further suggest strong holder conviction and reduced selling pressure for BTC.

Market Implications

The potential for Bitcoin to achieve targets between $127,500 and $138,000 in October could significantly impact trading activity and overall price appreciation for the cryptocurrency. A decisive breakout above the $118,000–$119,000 zone, where nearly $8 billion in shorts are vulnerable, would further validate these bullish signals. Such a move could trigger a cascade of liquidations, propelling prices higher.

Beyond Bitcoin, this bullish outlook could positively influence the broader altcoin market. Analysts are drawing parallels between the current market structure and the massive rallies observed in 2017 and 2021, with some predicting an "Altseason" in Q4. For instance, analyst Gordon asserted, "Altseason WILL happen in Q4. Get ready for Uptober, Moonvember, and Pumpcember." Additionally, Merlijn The Trader noted that altcoins have formed a 'cup and handle' pattern, considered a bullish continuation setup, signaling potential for a significant upward breakout once the consolidation phase ends.

However, external factors introduce an element of caution. The U.S. government shutdown, for example, could delay regulatory decisions from bodies like the SEC and CFTC on crypto-related filings and ETF approvals, potentially affecting market liquidity and investor sentiment. Derivatives metrics also signal caution, with CME open interest falling to five-month lows, funding rates hovering below neutral, and options traders favoring puts, as noted by analyst Lunde. High leverage across perpetual swaps leaves the market vulnerable to volatility spikes.

Expert Commentary

On-chain data and technical analysts broadly agree on the potential for an upward move. The historical trend of "green Septembers" preceding bullish Octobers, highlighted by Lookonchain, provides a foundational optimistic perspective. The precise technical targets from formations such as the double bottom (targeting $127,500) and the symmetrical triangle (targeting $137,000) are frequently cited within the analytical community.

Regarding market sentiment and positioning, an unnamed analyst, commenting on the MVRV ratio, stated, "Historically, this zone reflects neither panic nor euphoria: investors are still sitting on healthy gains, yet the market has cooled from overheated conditions. Each past cycle has shown that when MVRV consolidates around this range after an early surge, the trend often resets before entering its strongest expansion phase." This suggests a healthy market consolidation rather than an overheated state.

However, concerns about broader market conditions persist. Bitfinex analysts caution that the absence of timely economic data due to government shutdowns could erode investor confidence, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable to market shocks. This highlights the interplay between macroeconomic stability and cryptocurrency performance.

Broader Context

The potential for Bitcoin to reach targets up to $138,000 in October could significantly strengthen overall market confidence within the Web3 ecosystem. If these price levels are sustained, it might encourage further institutional and corporate adoption of digital assets, akin to precedents set by companies with Bitcoin treasury strategies. Conversely, a failure to break through key resistance levels could lead to price pullbacks, impacting investor sentiment across the digital asset space.

The U.S. government shutdown introduces a layer of macroeconomic uncertainty. While historical data shows mixed outcomes for Bitcoin during past shutdowns—with performance often more tied to the prevailing market cycle than direct political events—a prolonged closure could amplify market jitters by delaying regulatory clarity for ETF launches and DeFi rulemaking. This lack of clear policy and economic data could force investors to recalibrate risk appetites. Bitcoin's role as a macro hedge against political uncertainty remains contingent on broader fiscal and monetary signals, with Federal Reserve rate decisions and the resumption of economic data releases being critical to market stability. Ultimately, the confluence of bullish technical patterns, favorable on-chain data, and the navigation of external macroeconomic headwinds will dictate Bitcoin's trajectory in the coming months.