Crypto Markets Brace for Significant Token Unlocks Across PARTI, JUP, NIL

Executive Summary

The cryptocurrency market is poised for significant token unlocking events this week across multiple altcoins, notably Particle Network (PARTI), Jupiter (JUP), and Nillion (NIL). These scheduled releases will introduce a substantial volume of previously locked tokens into the circulating supply, creating potential for increased selling pressure and heightened market volatility for the respective assets. The collective impact is anticipated to influence overall market sentiment, particularly given the large percentages of circulating supply involved in certain unlocks.

The Event in Detail

Particle Network (PARTI) is scheduled for a major token unlock on September 25, when 182 million PARTI tokens will become available. This represents 78.44% of the current circulating supply and is valued at approximately $34 million. An additional unlock of 92.59 million PARTI, equivalent to 9.26% of the total supply, valued at roughly $16.86 million, is also anticipated around this period.

On September 24, Nillion (NIL) will see the unlock of 65.12 million tokens. This amount constitutes 33.37% of NIL's circulating supply, with an approximate market value of $21.40 million.

Jupiter (JUP) is set to unlock 53.47 million tokens on September 28. This release will add 1.75% to its circulating supply, valued at approximately $27.72 million.

Beyond these primary events, SPACE ID (ID), Sahara AI (SAHARA), Venom (VENOM), AltLayer (ALT), and SOON (SOON) also have significant unlocks scheduled throughout the week, contributing to the overall increase in market supply for these projects.

Market Implications

Token unlock events frequently correlate with increased market volatility and potential price depreciation, particularly for tokens experiencing substantial increases in circulating supply. Data indicates that unlocks exceeding 1% of a token's circulating supply have historically correlated with significant price declines, sometimes triggering drops of 25% or more. For instance, AVAIL experienced an average 25% price drop following a July 2025 unlock that constituted 33.56% of its supply. Similarly, SUI saw an 11% price decline in early September 2025 ahead of a large unlock event, demonstrating how markets can front-run expected dilution.

The high percentages of circulating supply being unlocked for PARTI (78.44%) and NIL (33.37%) suggest a heightened risk of significant selling pressure. While the unlock for JUP represents a smaller percentage (1.75%) of its circulating supply, it still falls within the range that has historically led to notable price adjustments. The immediate impact is expected to be increased supply on exchanges, which, without a corresponding surge in demand, typically leads to downward price pressure. Long-term implications will depend on the actions of new token holders, whether they choose to retain or sell their assets, and the underlying developmental progress of each project.

Broader Context

Tokenomics and vesting schedules are critical components of cryptocurrency project design, influencing market stability and investor confidence. While large, infrequent unlocks can induce abrupt price shocks, some projects are evolving their strategies. For example, Wormhole has transitioned to bi-weekly token releases, moving away from outdated annual cliffs, starting October 3, 2025. This approach aims to stabilize token circulation and mitigate the severe sell-off risks associated with large, sudden unlock events, fostering greater market confidence and protocol resilience. However, the current week's schedule across multiple projects still highlights the prevalence of larger, less frequent unlocks that warrant close market observation. Data from sources such as OKX reports that approximately 90% of unlock events create negative price pressure, with team-related unlocks often being particularly detrimental, as exemplified by ApeCoin's 77% price drop following team unlocks in 2024. Therefore, the scheduled unlocks this week will serve as a test for market absorption and investor resilience across several altcoins.