OpenAI’s $500 Billion Valuation Accelerates AI-Crypto Convergence, Tether’s Potential $515B Parallel

The Event in Detail

OpenAI, the artificial intelligence research company, has attained a $500 billion valuation following a secondary share sale, positioning it as the world’s largest startup and surpassing SpaceX. This significant valuation has drawn parallels within the cryptocurrency market, with Tether, the issuer of the USDT stablecoin, identified as a crypto entity with a comparable potential valuation.

Analysis by Artemis CEO Jon Ma projects Tether could reach a $515 billion valuation if it were to go public, potentially placing it ahead of established corporations such as Costco and Coca-Cola. This projection is based on Tether's reported $13 billion in net profits for 2024. Ma's model projects Tether's 2025 EBITDA at approximately $7.4 billion, assuming a $50-60 billion increase in USDT supply leading to an average of $170 billion, and an average Federal Funds Rate of 4.2%. Applying Circle's 69.3x EBITDA multiple to Tether's projected EBITDA yields the $515 billion figure. Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino acknowledged the valuation as a "beautiful number" while also describing it as "a bit bearish" considering the company's growing Bitcoin and gold treasury holdings.

Further emphasizing the intersection of AI and blockchain finance, Injective has introduced perpetual futures markets for private equity, providing direct exposure to companies including OpenAI, SpaceX, and Anthropic. These perpetual futures allow retail traders to speculate on the valuations of high-profile private firms without requiring actual share ownership, a market traditionally reserved for institutional investors. The contracts reflect estimated valuations and do not have an expiry date. Injective has indicated plans to add more private companies, such as xAI, Revolut, Monzo, Airtable, and Notion, with data and AI startups having collectively raised over $100 billion in 2024.

Market Implications

The substantial valuation of OpenAI underscores a broader trend of increasing capital flow into both AI and blockchain as foundational digital infrastructure. This synergy is expected to significantly impact the stablecoin market, with AI agents predicted to become major users. Research by CEX.io indicates that stablecoin transfers reached a record $15.6 trillion in Q3 2025, with approximately 71% of this activity linked to automated trading bots.

The growing energy demands of artificial intelligence, projected to reach between 5.3 to 9.4 gigawatts of power by 2025, are driving interest in sustainable solutions within the blockchain space. Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks (DePINs) are emerging as a potential answer, offering energy-efficient approaches by combining AI, blockchain, and edge computing, incentivizing participants with crypto tokens. Investments in AI-powered Web3 projects have surged, with $1.8 billion in funding across 2024-2025, representing a 26% share of total capital raised, and an 85% increase in investments for AI-related Web3 startups in 2024 alone.

Expert Commentary

Jon Ma's detailed financial model for Tether's potential $515 billion valuation provides a framework for assessing the market capitalization of key crypto entities relative to tech giants. This assessment, while based on certain assumptions regarding USDT supply growth and interest rates, highlights the significant financial scale achievable within the stablecoin ecosystem. Paolo Ardoino's response acknowledges the scale while pointing to a potentially higher intrinsic value, reflecting optimism within the sector.

Illya Otychenko, a market research analyst at CEX.io, commented on the significant role of automation, stating that over 70% of stablecoin transactions in Q3 2025 were linked to bot activity. This indicates a growing operational reliance on stablecoins for automated financial processes.

Google's introduction of the Agent Payments Protocol (AP2) signifies a strategic move towards integrating AI and stablecoin payments. This protocol is designed specifically for autonomous AI agents, enabling them to initiate payments using stablecoins and blockchain-based settlement rails. Forbes highlighted AP2 as a shift that could reposition crypto as the default medium for AI-driven systems, potentially accelerating both the rise of AI agents and the normalization of stablecoins in daily transactions.

Broader Context

The convergence of AI and blockchain is fostering new economic opportunities, with estimates suggesting up to $1 trillion in economic value by 2030, according to Gartner. This integration aims to create a more democratized access to AI tools, trustless data-sharing models, and marketplaces for AI resources. The increasing energy consumption of AI training necessitates a focus on sustainable practices, with decentralized compute solutions and renewable energy sources becoming critical for the crypto and AI data center industries.

The development of protocols like Google's AP2 suggests a future where stablecoins could serve as the "lingua franca" for AI-to-AI transactions. This paradigm shift could unlock novel financial products, including microtransactions, real-time adjustable subscription models, and AI marketplaces. However, this autonomy also introduces challenges related to trust, control, and regulation. Assigning liability for transactions initiated by bots remains an uncharted regulatory territory, and fraud risks intensify if agents can automatically sign off on payments. Despite these challenges, the trajectory points towards a future where AI and blockchain are deeply integrated, with autonomous agents performing complex financial operations facilitated by stablecoins.