Options data indicates bullish sentiment for XRP and SOL, contrasting with bearish outlooks for BTC and ETH as traders hedge for downside risk.

Market Sentiment Divergence

Options data from Deribit reveals a divergence in market sentiment, with XRP and SOL displaying bullish signals while traders hedge for downside risk in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). This divergence is evident in the options pricing and open interest across different cryptocurrencies.

XRP ETF Anticipation

XRP call options are pricier than puts across all tenors, signaling bullish sentiment fueled by anticipation of potential U.S. ETF approvals. Nansen Research Analyst Nicolai Sondergaard noted, > "Looking purely at XRP options data, there is a larger interest in calls as opposed to puts, indicating bullish sentiment." James Toledano, Chief Operating Officer at Unity Wallet, stated, >“XRP's momentum reflects growing optimism around potential regulatory clarity and the possible approval of an XRP ETF in the coming months. If approved, an XRP ETF could attract significant institutional capital, propelling the asset to new heights in 2025.” Several companies, including Bitwise, Canary Capital, WisdomTree, and 21Shares, have filed applications with the SEC for a spot XRP ETF. Polymarket users predict a 67% chance of SEC approval in 2025. Analysts, including James Seyffart from Bloomberg ETF, have placed a 95% probability on the approval of XRP ETFs in 2025.

Solana's Alpenglow Upgrade

SOL options also exhibit bullishness, stemming from the recent Alpenglow upgrade that boosts network speed. The upgrade, approved with 99.6% validator approval, reduces consensus finality from approximately 12.8 seconds to about 0.15 seconds and increases peak throughput beyond 100,000 transactions per second (TPS). The Alpenglow upgrade also revises the network's economics, replacing variable vote traffic costs with a flat "Admission Ticket" of 1.6 SOL per epoch (approximately $1,000/year) that is burned, representing a 98% reduction from the previous annual fees of roughly $60,000.

Bitcoin and Ethereum Bearish Outlook

BTC and ETH options show a bias for puts, indicating bearish sentiment due to various market factors. Over $4.6 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expire, with a large portion concentrated in put options, suggesting traders are positioning themselves for a possible downturn. The put-call ratio for Bitcoin currently sits at 1.41, suggesting a bearish tilt in the market.

Market Implications

Potential approval of XRP ETFs could lead to substantial price gains. Solana's Alpenglow upgrade could attract institutional adoption. Continued bearish sentiment in BTC and ETH may lead to further price declines. The cryptocurrency market is bracing for volatility as major events such as token unlocks, regulatory clarity, and Federal Reserve policy decisions converge in September 2025.