AAVE rallies 16% to $84 as Bitcoin stagnates below $60,000

AAVE is diverging from the broader crypto market, rallying 16% over the past week while Bitcoin remains stuck below the $60,000 level.

AAVE traded at $83.88 as of 09:00 UTC on June 26, up nearly 16% over the past seven days, according to CoinGecko. The token's advance comes as Bitcoin hovered near $59,300, failing to reclaim the $60,000 mark after sliding to a yearly low of $58,000 during the previous session. The divergence has drawn attention to Aave's improving fundamentals and a series of protocol-level announcements.

"There is no way Aave would sell AAVE at a 70% discount," Stani Kulechov, founder of Aave, said in response to reports that Kraken was in talks to acquire a large stake in the protocol at a steep discount. Kulechov clarified that discussions centered on an allocation of AAVE owned by Aave Labs, not tokens being sold by the protocol itself. The clarification helped ease governance concerns that had weighed on the token.

The rally is underpinned by fresh details on Aave's token economics. Kulechov confirmed that 100% of revenue generated by the Aave Protocol and the GHO stablecoin flows to the AAVE token under the "Aave Will Win" framework. He also disclosed that the team is developing Aavenomics 3.0, which will introduce an automated, non-discretionary buyback mechanism. Aave currently generates approximately $134 million in annualized revenue, with the protocol securing more than $12.24 billion in total value locked across Ethereum and other chains, according to DefiLlama.

Technical levels and the path to $100

AAVE is trading above its 10-day, 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages, indicating improving short-term momentum, though it remains below its 100-day and 200-day EMAs. The daily Relative Strength Index stands at 63.96, suggesting room for further upside before entering overbought territory. On the weekly timeframe, the RSI sits at 33.43, a level that has historically coincided with cycle lows.

The immediate resistance sits at $88.41. A daily close above that level could open the path toward $90.13 and eventually the psychologically significant $100 mark. On the downside, support is established at $72.22, with a break below that level exposing the token to further downside.

The Kraken deal and valuation dynamics

Kraken's parent company Payward is in talks to buy a 15% stake in Aave Group at a $385 million valuation, according to a separate report. The deal would involve 35,000 ETH (approximately $55 million) in exchange for 250,000 AAVE tokens ($20 million) and a 15% common equity stake. The structure highlights a valuation discrepancy: the AAVE token trades at a roughly $1.24 billion market cap, more than three times the equity valuation of the underlying company.

Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick initiated coverage of AAVE with a price target of roughly $4,000 by the end of the decade, built on the thesis that tokenization and on-chain credit will drive significant growth in DeFi lending. The bullish call from a major bank adds institutional credibility to the narrative.

What to watch

The key catalyst for AAVE remains the execution of Aavenomics 3.0. If the automated buyback mechanism is implemented as described, it would create a direct channel for protocol revenue to support the token price. The next resistance test at $88.41 will determine whether the current rally has legs or requires consolidation. A daily close above $60,000 for Bitcoin would also remove a macro headwind that has kept risk appetite constrained across crypto markets.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.