Key Takeaways
Investment bank Benchmark raised its price target on Coinbase Global Inc. to $270, maintaining a Buy rating even after the crypto exchange reported a $394 million net loss for the first quarter of 2026.
The move contrasts sharply with Barclays, which cut its target to $107, citing cyclical trading weakness. "The split frames a real debate: can Coinbase’s diversification push offset cyclical trading weakness?" wrote David Moadel, an analyst at 24/7 Wall St.
Coinbase's first-quarter revenue of $1.41 billion fell short of the $1.48 billion consensus estimate and declined 31% year-over-year. The company reported an earnings per share of -$1.49, significantly below the anticipated $0.29. Despite the miss, adjusted EBITDA remained positive for the 13th consecutive quarter at $303.3 million.
Benchmark's thesis views Coinbase as a long-term "on-chain infrastructure provider," looking past the current retail trading slump. The stock, which has fallen 37.58% over the past six months, will test whether investors favor this long-term view or focus on the immediate revenue headwinds.
The wide gap in analyst opinion highlights the core debate around Coinbase. While Benchmark and Rosenblatt ($240 target) are focused on new products and market share gains, Barclays' Underweight rating centers on the 36% quarter-over-quarter decline in consumer trading volumes. Bank of America holds a middle ground, trimming its target to $218 but keeping a Buy rating, pointing to the growth in subscription and services revenue, which hit $583.5 million.
In response to market conditions, Coinbase management has focused on cost controls, announcing a 14% workforce reduction in May expected to save up to $150 million in annual operating expenses. CEO Brian Armstrong has pointed to AI as a driver for efficiency. The company is also pushing to diversify revenue away from transaction fees, with stablecoin revenue tied to USDC contributing $305 million in the first quarter.
Benchmark's bullish $270 target suggests a potential 40% upside from the current trading price of around $192. Investors will be closely watching the Q2 earnings call on August 12 for signs of a recovery in trading volumes and continued growth in the company's diversification strategy to see if the bull case can prevail.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
