Bitcoin's short-term holder cost basis has fallen below the adjusted long-term holder level for the first time in the current cycle, a historically reliable signal that the bear market may be entering its final phase, according to CryptoQuant.
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Bitcoin bear-market signal flashes on cost basis crossover at $69,000
Bitcoin's short-term holder realized price dropped to $69,000, crossing below the adjusted long-term holder cost basis in a pattern that has preceded the final stage of bear markets in prior cycles.
"The end of the bear market is approaching," a CryptoQuant analyst said, noting the signal is defined by the downward crossover of the short-term and long-term holder cost basis with a three-day confirmation window to validate the reading.
The short-term holder cost basis has declined from $112,500 to $69,000, reflecting Bitcoin acquired within the past six months changing hands at lower prices. The adjusted long-term holder calculation excludes coins held for more than seven years to limit the influence of dormant supply on the metric.
The crossover does not confirm an immediate price bottom — Bitcoin could remain volatile or trade lower before a sustained recovery develops. The signal instead marks the start of a late-stage accumulation period where dollar-cost averaging may be appropriate, the analyst said.
What the Crossover Means
The signal has appeared in prior Bitcoin cycles with a consistent sequence: a downward crossover of the STH and LTH cost basis, followed later by an upward crossover that confirmed bull-market phases. The interval between the two signals shows that Bitcoin can remain in a transitional phase for an extended period after the initial signal fires.
Under the analyst's framework, a confirmed bull market would require the short-term holder cost basis to rise back above the adjusted long-term holder level. That upward crossover would suggest recently acquired Bitcoin is changing hands at progressively higher average prices — a dynamic observed at the start of prior uptrends.
Price Action and Macro Context
Bitcoin traded at $62,800 as of 14:30 UTC on Friday, down 2.9 percent over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko. The leading cryptocurrency has failed to reclaim its 50-day moving average after a brief rally earlier this week, keeping the broader downtrend intact since June. Support sits near $61,000 and $59,000, with the lower boundary of the current range near $56,000.
The on-chain signal arrives against a mixed macro backdrop. BlackRock Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink said Bitcoin appears "stable" at current levels due to reduced leverage among market participants, describing the next 12 months as "very optimistic" for global markets. Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, has paused Bitcoin purchases for three weeks and said it will only resume buying once its preferred shares recover to par value of $100.
Glassnode data shows the proportion of long-term investors selling at a loss has stopped rising, which the analytics firm described as an early sign that the sell-off may be nearing its end.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
[1] Bitcoin's Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Falls Below $30,000 Long-Term Level[2] Whale's Insight: Bitcoin's CPI Rally Is Fake, Built On Borrowed Money[3] Bitcoin’s Failed Reversal Keeps the Broader Downtrend Intact - Investing.com[4] Bitcoin's short-term holder cost basis falls be... - Pluang[5] Bitcoin Flashes ‘End of Bear’ Signal as Cost Basis Crossover Suggests Final Bear Market Phase - Cryptonews.net
